30 Year Futures Show Excessive Bullishness
People Think Their Taxes Will Be Raised, But They Won’t It's always interesting when vast swaths of people believe something that isn’t true. One example of this is the FOMO involved in cryptocurrencies. The total valuation of all the coins is $606 billion. It’s difficult to rationalize that valuation, but most speculators don’t care. They…
Tax Bill Implications Shake Markets
Has this been buy the rumor, sell the news trading? As the House passed the tax bill today and all indications point to the Senate passing the bill also and being signed by President Trump stocks sell off slightly. In tonight's video let's analyze how the stock and bond market is reacting to the biggest…
Modi Wins State Elections, Stabilizing The Indian Markets
Financials Do Well When The 10 Year Yield Rises We’ve discussed which sectors do well when the yield curve flattens. Now let’s look at which sectors do well when the 10 year bond yield goes up. The 10 year bond has gone up 45% of the time since 2010. I think inflation will increase in…
GOP Senate Has The Votes To Pass The Tax Cut
Analysts Have A Great 2017 Analysts get a lot of flak when they get caught changing their price targets and recommendations after an earnings surprise. I sometimes criticize them to make sure investors know not to take their word as gospel. If you are a beginner, you might think the 12 month price targets are…
Irrational Exuberance Echo?
Stocks rally up to new all time highs today. Many are using Alan Greenspan's phrase of Irrational "Exuberance" of the 90s. In tonight's video let's analyze what happened then and compare it to today. What should you be watching out for to know if a market top is about to happen? Understanding this will help…
The Middle Class & Poor Haven’t Recovered From The Financial Crisis
The Poor Have A Negative Net Worth In a previous article we discussed how populism could rise in 2017. If you’re career is going well, you might be detached from the plight of some in the lower class. The charts below help you understand their recent woes. It shows the changes in net worth in…
Manic Upside Moves Grip the Markets
Stocks rally this week right up to the edge of the expected move. This is why in every weekly update we analyze what the expected move of the market is. Watch this crucial weekend video market update to learn what to watch in the upcoming week.
Will 2018 See A Rally Based On Tax Cuts?
GOP Agrees On A Tax Plan Senator Marco Rubio and Senator Bob Corker announced they support the latest tax plan which gives it enough votes to pass. The final vote will be on Tuesday, but at this point the decision is known. This helped the stock market rally briskly on Friday. The S&P 500 was up 0.9%…
Investors Don’t Believe Fed Guidance Because Of Disappointing Inflation
FOMC Transcript The Fed’s recent statement and press conference saw the market respond as if they were dovish. That goes against the actions which were a rate hike, a promise of 3 hikes next year, increasing the balance sheet runoff to $20 billion per month, and increasing the dot plot by one hike in 2020.…
Russell Rotation and the Bitcoin Futures (XBT) Bust
Stocks quietly sell off today with volatility slightly down telling us that there was no panic. A lot of orderly profit taking. Money went out of the small cap stocks and into some of the bigger names. Also many of us were looking forward to the Bitcoin Futures being released and so far the volume…