Q2 EPS Expected To fall 43.9%
Multiples Are High Recently, forward EPS estimates seemled like they might be bottoming which is a positive. This was in the discussion on how PE multiples rose about 60% since the bottom just like they did in the few months after the March 2009 bottom. If earnings rise, they can help stocks further this run.…
Retail Trading Activity Is Exploding
Did The Weekend Matter? It was wrong to say there would be a sharp decline coming on Friday as the market was up slightly and the small caps outperformed again. It was the day before Memorial Day weekend. Investors didn’t think as many people would go on vacation as normal because the economy is still…
Ugly Jobless Claims
Permanent Isn’t Actually Forever Some people are discussing permanent job loss. That’s mostly ridiculous. There won’t be a permanent increase in the unemployment rate. Permanent means forever. That’s wrong. This unemployment rate will fall back near where it troughed at in early 2020. People are misusing the term as they seem to be suggesting a…
Market in a Volatile Holding Pattern?
The edge of normal?--SPX holds it together and pulls out another week inside the Expected Move SPX Expected Move--last week-- 93.88 (expected)--next week-- Volatility Box and Sector Rotations--SPY/Bonds--SPY/Dollar--SPY/Gold Big Tech getting frothy--AMZN--FB - vol skew flips--MSFT Bond watch! Do not get lulled to sleep--is ain't no quiet market!--Volatility is alive!--VVIX, Vol Futures
Minimal Decline On Thursday - Cloud Is Still In A Bubble
Down But Not Really The stock market fell on Thursday, but it didn’t feel as bad as the S&P 500’s 0.78% decline indicates. Russell 2000 was actually up 5 basis points. Considering how overbought the market was on Wednesday, you can say this was a light decline. You can also say that means a deeper…
Sector Performance In Bear Market - Financials The Big Loser
Bear Market Sector Performance (Energy) The chart below shows the performance of each sector in the bear market, since the peak in February, and since the bottom in March. Most notable performance is energy which fell 56% from peak to trough and rose 63.1% since the bottom. That still puts its returns since the top…
Skirting the Weekly Expected Move and Planning the Shorts
We're still at the upper Value Area Extreme of the Profile along with the weekly SPX Expected move - both of which point to higher odds of selling ahead. But in tonight's video, Corey highlights the higher probability but advocates hedges and preparation in the event bulls break through 3000 in the SPX to carry…
Stock Market Is Overheated
Another Big Rally The stock market is starting to look overheated as it reversed Tuesday’s selloff on Wednesday, closing at a new bear market high. Stocks are due for a correction. CNN fear and greed index rose 5 points to 53. Neutral is the new extreme greed with the economy still in flux. There’s no reason…
On the Edge of the Volatility Box
For the third time in three weeks the S&P is at the top of the range of the volatility box. This is a crucial point in the market. The SPX all week has been skirting the top edge of the expected move for the week. Our last gravity point is a stone throw away. Don't…
Fund Managers Are Positioned All Wrong
Fund Managers Love Tech & Healthcare Bank of America fund manager survey tells us what we already knew. Fund managers love healthcare and tech stocks. As you can see from the chart below, the z score for healthcare is about 2.5 standard deviations above normal. That makes sense because biotech stocks are working on cures…