Feeling the Wrath of Volatility
Outliers leading to more outlier events! Weekly percentage Moves SPX Expected Move--last week-- 78.38 (expected move)--next week-- 125.77 VVIX was the preeminent indicator, yep we warned you Back in the Hurt Locker! aka: The Volaility Box Bonds UP, market tanked! market musical chairs, music stopped... you find a seat? Tech will be the epicenter of…
Big Thursday Crash After Market Hits Euphoria
Market Crashes The market went from overbought to crashing very quickly. It's shocking how easy of a call this was. Some sold a lot of positions on Friday and then stocks went on a 3 day losing streak starting on Tuesday. This trade was easy because the signs were all there. Retail traders were pushing…
Housing Market Is Oddly On Fire
Housing Is Strong The housing market is flat out strong. That’s weird to hear about a part of the economy because most of the economy is weak on an absolute basis, but improving on a rate of change basis. Housing market is strong and improving. That’s because the demand that usually occurs in March was simply…
Markets Snap Back Hard to Gravity
Don made a specific point to highlight the quiet yet aggressive buying activity in bonds - along with the VIX Volatility Index - that showed us that something big was moving behind the scenes. Today, we realize now what that was. Stocks across the board - in fact all 500 S&P 500 index components -…
Stock Market Correction Begins
Correction Is Beginning Fed gave the market its most dovish presentation possible, yet stocks still fell on Wednesday. That’s a powerful sign stocks are headed lower. This is the correction many have been predicting. Specifically, the S&P 500 fell 0.53% on Wednesday which now puts it 1.3% off its bear market high. Crashes of some…
Fed Not Even Thinking About Hiking Rates
Fed Doesn’t Change Rates In a surprise to no one, the Fed didn’t cut or hike rates. Most discussed quote by Powell was when he said, “We’re not thinking about raising rates. We’re not even thinking about thinking about raising rates. What we’re thinking about is providing support for the economy. We think this is…
Are You Living on the Bullish Edge?
For the second day in a row money is rotating out of financials into big technology. The market seems to be posed for a big move in either direction. Be ready for some wild trading activity during the remainder of this week.
Euphoria Remains Despite Slight Selloff
Irrelevant Tuesday Decline It’s as if stocks fell slightly on Tuesday to sprinkle in a down day every few days. We should hardly acknowledge that decline because this is one of the most euphoric markets most have ever seen. A 0.78% decline in the S&P 500 and a 0.29% gain in the Nasdaq does nothing…
Small Businesses Are Becoming More Optimistic
Terrible Redbook Reading We have differing data on the latest trend in consumer spending. Earlier this week, Mastercard released spending data in its 8K filing. This updated data is paramount because the economy has changed so much in the past few weeks. Switched volume growth in the week ending May 28th was -8% which was the…
The Incredibly Unusual Thing about Today
You're not alone if you felt confused about today's trading activity and the divergence between the majority of negative stocks and the continued upward action of the indexes, especially the NASDAQ. That's in large part to market cap leaders such as Apple (AAPL), and Amazon (AMZN) that made new all-time highs with the /NQ, but…