Historic Reading In Put To Call Ratio
Most Overbought Ever This is the most overbought market we’ve ever seen. That includes the January 2018 VIX shorting mania. It's because stocks have run up faster and there is more risk. In the beginning of 2018, there wasn’t much risk other than prices being too high. Now, we are potentially exiting a global pandemic,…
Recession Is Official - And Might Be Over Already
Perfect Headlines This market has seen an unbelievable combination of headlines. We had bankrupt stocks skyrocketing which led to the headline that Chesapeake stock rose triple digits which was followed by the headline that it filed for bankruptcy. Similarly, the S&P 500 went positive on the year on the same day the NBER announced the…
The Bullish Point of No Return?
Financials lead the way as the XLF level closes above the crucial 26.50 level. BA helps lift the Dow higher and risk on trades in the energy sector. Here's the key stocks to watch this week...
Historic Euphoria In Stocks
Moment Is Here Recently, many have recognized the possibility that this would be a historic moment in markets in terms of euphoric speculation. Mostly that was because of the unprecedented new retail trading accounts. In early to mid-May we thought there were some buys. Then, several investors started becoming more bearish in late May and…
Big Unexpected Increase In Jobs Added In May
Craziest Labor Report Ever This was the craziest labor report we have ever seen or will ever see. It beat expectations dramatically just like the ADP report. The BLS report was even better than the ADP report potentially because of an error. Essentially, jobs started coming back in May instead of June. Workers were rehired…
Game Changer or Short of a Lifetime in the Markets?
Employment Situation-- missed the broad-side of a barn-- dragging out instability within employment-- will the FED will tapper the asset purchases? Anything but normal…--SPX smashes the weekly Expected Move SPX Expected Move--last week-- 78.31 (expected)--next week-- 78.38 Bonds-- we are back baby! -- bonds crushed and the range is broken-- rate are a flyin' Outsized…
Jobless Claims Imply Stocks Are Too High
Bad Jobless Claims Report Jobless claims report was terrible. That’s not what you want to see if you’re a bull because stocks have rallied so much on the premise a recovery is guaranteed. It’s far from guaranteed. Investors think that because the recession was man made (the shutdowns), it can be reversed easily. Technically, every…
Extremely Positive Fund Manager Positioning
Extremely Positive Sentiment Interestingly, the stock market fell very slightly on Thursday. But that has no impact on the extremely speculative run the market has been on for the past few weeks. It was very exciting to finally get the NAAIM exposure index because we knew it would get above 90 which is a strong…
Airline Stocks Take Flight Today
In case you missed it, some of the strongest stocks in the SP500 today weren't financials, but airline stocks. That's in large part because these same airline stocks have lost so much value over the last month. However today was the day aggressive call spreads and bullish 'fade' or reversal duration positions went in the…
Best 50 Day Period In Market History
Extreme Euphoria Recently, it seemed like this had the potential to be a historic market where it gets extremely overbought like in January 2018. History has been made as the S&P 500 has increased 37.7% in the past 50 days, making this the best 50 day period ever. Previous best period was in 2009 when…