COVID-19 Resurgence Reverses Economic Recovery
Economy Is Slowing This economy is slowing because of the increase in COVID-19 cases. And the stock market is ignoring this unless you think the 7% correction priced this in. A problem with that logic is over half of that correction has been rescinded even though we have no evidence the slowdown is over. We…
Still More Highs for the Holiday Week
Stocks - at least the SP500 - held support of Don's Gravity and the lower Profile Extreme to rally back toward 3100. Along that short-term bullish journey, some key stocks including Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), and Netflix (NFLX) made new all-time highs while Apple (AAPL) fell a few dollars shy. Which 'strong stocks getting stronger'…
Window Dressing Causes Winners To Spike Further
Amazing Q2 S&P 500 increased 19.94% in Q2 which was the best Q2 since 1938. The market was 6 basis points away from having the first down 20% quarter followed by an up 20% quarter since 1932. We are in rarified territory even though this mark was barely missed. This was the S&P 500’s biggest…
Real Time Economic Data Stops Improving
Redbook Sales Growth Improves Again My theory is growth is slowing in the areas most impacted by COVID-19. This includes many states in the south and the west. With the northeast and the Midwest improving, it’s interesting to see what that does to national data. Redbook same store sales growth in the week of June…
Big Moves Same Range
S&P tags the upper edge of the expected move. Despite the large intraday movement the overall market has been in the same range for the last 3 weeks. Here are the strategies Don is using right now in case the markets explode to the upside...
Very Usual AAII Sentiment Reading
Big Small Cap Rally The stock market had a solid Monday rally after selling off on Friday. Huge winners were the small caps. Specifically, the S&P 500 rose 1.47%, the Nasdaq rose 1.2%, and the Russell 2000 rose 3.08%. Tech stocks underperformed which is extremely rare for this market since the March bottom. CLOU cloud…
Economy Expected To Have Added 3.5 Million Jobs In June
Economic Expectations Thursday is a big day for labor data. Let's look at a few estimates for this. We are getting the BLS monthly labor report and weekly jobless claims. It will be curious as to how the recent spike in COVID-19 cases impacts jobless claims. We might need to wait a couple more weeks…
Key Stocks Leading us Off the Edge of Support
Despite a near-miss of Don's 2983, the market reversed powerfully higher after holding the 'edge of the cliff' mentioned last week. Which stocks lead the rally higher and what's the trade logic from here during this holiday week? Corey highlights those in tonight's video.
Social Media Stocks Lead Friday Correction
Facebook & Twitter Crash On Boycotts The stock market sold off sharply on Friday. A selloff was led by the COVID-19 recovery plays and the social media stocks. It’s very clear why the recovery plays declined since COVID-19 is running rampant in the south and the west. However, the decline in social media stocks is…
Consumer Confidence Follows COVID-19 Crisis
Big Consumer Sentiment Spike In June Final June consumer sentiment reading was 78.1 which was slightly below the preliminary reading of 78.9. It’s tough to tell if that small decline at the end of the month matters. You would think sentiment would be getting worse now because stocks are declining and COVID-19 cases are going…