Bulls Need This One Sector to Come Alive in 2025
It’s been a choppy few weeks in the stock market. From now looking back to the election in November, we’re basically unchanged. This in turn is prompting talking heads to declare the “Trump bump” is over. I’ll level with you: My trading, and more importantly, my risk management, doesn’t change depending on who holds political…
Two Metals Can Tell Us If Growth Is Making a Comeback
Growth: Every country wants it, and governments and their planners will crawl over broken glass to get it. Here in the United States, growth has been so-so, well below 3% in 2024, though it’s strong compared to many other big economies. As we’ve been talking about recently, we can look at the behavior of assets…
I’m Not Worried About This Pullback
Stocks gave back all of Monday’s gains and then some today. Monday’s panic buyers were mercilessly punished for going nuts during the spree. Frankly, I’m not surprised by today’s plunge - I actually find it encouraging. That’s because a period of sideways price action will provide fuel for an even more powerful rally down the…
The Magnificent Seven Carry the Day, But…
If, like me, you’d watched the market edge higher this morning, what would you have guessed was leading the way? None other than the Magnificent Seven, of course. In this day and age, it’s generally a good bet that that particular “basket” of stocks will lead markets higher. In fact, in 2024, Apple (AAPL), Amazon…
TheoTrade’s Tale of the Tape: Energy’s Pop Is Likely a Bottom Signal
For the second week in a row, energy was the top-performing sector in the S&P 500. This is especially interesting because, given the strength of Friday’s rally, it looks like bears may be about to be squeezed again. Whenever energy outperforms, it gives us a clue as to where we are in the market cycle.…
Enjoy the Bounceback… And Get Ready for Another Smack
Markets were up strongly today, bouncing back from this week’s beatdown. But here’s the thing. Correlation is high and still increasing. I’ve talked a lot about this recently. Correlation is tricky stuff. When you see stocks moving with no headline or hard, identifiable event driving that move - that’s correlation. And what it takes up,…
I Am Forever a Student of the Market (and I've Beaten It By More Than 4X)
A new year is upon us, which means it’s finally safe to count all those chickens that hatched in 2024. Needless to say, it was a year for the record books. The S&P 500 finished 23.3% higher in 2024 - not bad - but our trading strategies were able to quadruple that performance using stocks…
Get Your 2025 Trading Started Right With These
I’m a technical trading guy - there’s no better way, in the moment, to get the full picture to know when to pull the trigger on a trade - or the ripcord. Technical analysis is the way to understand price action in the short term. But you can’t ignore fundamentals, the forces that dictate, more…
Santa Claus Is Not Coming to Town - Here’s What Happens Next
This is what I’d call a highly unusual “Santa Claus rally” period - what with the consecutive days of selling and all. But keep it in perspective; volume is light this time of year and the bears don’t have much fight in them right now. This is a great time to reflect on a record…
A Year Without Santa: What the Technicals Say About a Near-Term Bottom
By any measure, the “Santa Claus rally” that historically boosts stocks through the end of a calendar year has failed. There are just a handful of trading sessions left in the Santa Claus rally period, but I still see folks hopefully scanning the horizon in hopes the jolly fat bull might appear… There’s a tendency…