How Markets Did on the First Day of Trump II
We’ve been through the “Trump rally,” the “Trump slump,” the “Trump bump,” and now… just Trump, as the first full trading day of the new administration comes to a close. Space stocks, which are in the Million-Dollar Challenge portfolio, did well, with big moves underway. Broadly speaking, many stocks responded well, with the big index…
TheoTrade’s Tale of the Tape: Now, About That Bullish Correction
Last week, when stocks were on the defensive, I pointed out the continued presence of positive money flows within the market. And as it turned out, Monday was the low of the week. Stocks rallied smartly and then ended up closing at their highest level in four weeks. So what’s all the fuss about? I’ll…
Don’t Bet on the “Trump Rally 2.0” - Bonds and Greenbacks Say No
We got strong rallies in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ today; a little less power on the Dow and Russell 2000, but they came along for the ride. Seeing as this is the last trading day of the Biden administration, I’m seeing some talking heads out there calling this the “Trump Rally 2.0.” Thing is……
Everyone: Check Out My “Mania Math”
It never ceases to amaze me - how sentiment follows price. Stocks dropped six weeks’ worth of gains from their all-time highs down into what appears to be a low of significance this past Monday. This was also the longest decline that stocks have experienced going back to the October 2023 low. Ask yourself this…
Here’s How to Play the “Big Bounce”
Some weeks, you see it all… and this is one of those weeks. What had been a tape on life support roared back - violently - the second traders perceived inflation was cooling off. (Whether that perception is accurate… well, that’s a different story.) Bonds have staged a recovery, as well, which means savvy folks…
This Rally Is the Hallmark of a Volatile Market
We got a rally today. Not the rally, but a rally. The S&P was up nearly 2% when I recorded this, and the NASDAQ was rockin’ more than 2.5% to the upside. We can chalk this up to CPI this morning; traders read the tea leaves and decided inflation had cooled off and it was…
Stocks Are Trying to Carve Out a Bottom - Here’s What I Think
The markets’ mood has soured - that much is obvious. There are worries about inflation - also obvious if you look at the bond market. That makes tomorrow morning’s CPI data release critical. It could make or break the action in the bond market but in stocks as well. Crude oil is at a critical…
The Market Is Waking to a Crude Inflationary Reality
Our hearts go out to the people impacted by the wildfires in Los Angeles. The human cost has already been staggering, with at least 24 dead and as many as 100,000 forced to flee their homes. We don’t yet know the final financial toll, but as traders, we can already see signs in the…
TheoTrade’s Tale of the Tape: We’re In a Bullish Correction
Stocks went out near the lows of the week on Friday, and by now, most of you are well aware of my high regard for closing prices. In other words, when stocks close at the lows of the week, it’s a strong signal that bears were the victor of that five-day period. Over the past…
The “Bond Conundrum” Is Driving Markets to the Edge
All of the big indexes got rocked to the downside today. On the surface, the market had a “good news is bad news” freakout about strong December jobs gains. We’ve seen this behavior before. Last week, in fact, I invited traders to “enjoy the bounceback… and get ready for another smack.” And that’s what we’re…