The “Turkey Trade” Has Stocks Spinning Their Wheels
This trading pattern isn’t uncommon at this time of year as volume slackens a bit. Stocks are consolidating near their highs, while more tech stocks begin to behave bullishly. Disinflation is the name of the game, and that’s usually a good environment for stocks, especially Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN). The big exception here is…
Bonds Pop, Gold Drops, and China Makes a Move
Bonds and gold historically have a positive correlation; they tend to move together. But that’s been breaking up as of late, and that’s what happened today. Whether they’re breaking up for good is a different story. Treasuries saw their biggest rally since August, but gold had its biggest drop since the beginning of the month.…
TheoTrade’s Tale of the Tape: This Inflationary Sector Bounce Won’t Last
Over the past few weeks, we’ve seen a nice bounce in so-called “inflationary” sectors. Basic materials (XLB) emerged as last week’s leader, and over the past month, the top-performer is energy (XLE). But if you’ve been tuning into TheoTrade’s live sessions, you’ve heard me talking about crude oil’s imminent collapse. And finally, I think we…
Is Tech Losing Its Edge? Big Moves Coming Next Week
This week, the S&P 500 has been hugging the upper edge of its expected move with precision, and next week’s $72 expected move in 3.5 trading days is aggressive for a holiday week. Meanwhile, tech is lagging—Microsoft is flat, and Apple, Amazon, and Google aren’t driving the market. Instead, financials and energy are stealing the…
Here’s What the Euro’s Collapse Means for You
While Bitcoin dominates today's headlines, seasoned investors know the financial markets extend far beyond cryptocurrencies. Don't misunderstand - I remain bullish on crypto and have been for months. However, focusing solely on crypto means missing other significant market opportunities unfolding right now. The foreign exchange market dwarfs all others in trading volume, and a major…
The Market Is Betting on a New U.S. Manufacturing Boom
After spending decades dismantling and exporting American industries, the folks in D.C. are suddenly all about bringing them back. And they’re having some success, to be sure. From where I’m standing, the market agrees. In fact, it looks like this trend is only going to accelerate. Industrial stocks, as tracked by the Industrial Select Sector…
It’s Nvidia’s Market - We’re Just Trading In It
I’m writing this in the weird netherworld between the cash close and Nvidia’s third-quarter earnings announcement… Surprisingly, equities finished higher today, despite some serious volatility. We’re getting consistent VIX readings above 17 and there were times during today’s session when it was knocking on the door of 19. Yikes. That gave us selling on rockin’…
The Markets Are Looking for Stability… And They'll Probably Find It
The markets were jolted this morning by the beat of war drums - an “update” to Russian nuclear doctrine said to be in response to Ukraine’s use of American missiles. This is only the latest setback for folks that have blindly chased the post-election rally. They've been feeling the pinch over the past week. But…
Gold Is (Literally) Handing Us a Golden Opportunity
My approach to the market is to identify activity, or “pulses,” beneath the surface of the market that point to potential movement. These “pre-move pulses” are a strong indication of the potential success of a trade. Early last week, Tuesday, in fact, my gold charts began to show exactly this kind of activity. They’re still…
TheoTrade’s Tale of the Tape: Bulls Take It to the Bank
There’s a saying in life that goes, “Don’t judge a book by its cover.” Well, as it turns out, we shouldn’t judge the market solely by the indices either. It amazes me how, after just one week of selling, I’m already starting to see calls for a “Trump slump,” and for stocks to experience a…