Beige Book - Fed Shows Rate Cuts Incoming
Beige Book - Redbook Sales Growth Falls Before getting into the Fed's Beige Book let's review Redbook Sales. In the week of July 13th, Redbook sales growth fell sharply from 6.2% to 4.7%. Keep in mind, this is yearly growth, so the strong growth in the previous week had nothing to do with this weakness.…
Citigroup - Wells Fargo - JP Morgan All Beat Earnings Estimates
Citigroup - Wells Fargo - JP Morgan - Stocks Fall Slightly As Trump Gives Update On Trade Talks Citigroup - Wells Fargo - JP Morgan - All beat estimates. The stock market fell on Tuesday even though the retail sales report was great. It may have fallen because stocks are very overbought. Or because President…
Great Retail Sales Report Bolstered By Real Wage Gains
Great Retail Sales Report - Strong Real Wage Growth June showed us a Great Retail Sales Report and Real Wage Gains. As I will get to later in this article, retail sales growth was solid in June. We must start with why it was strong. As you can see in the chart below, real wage…
Earnings Season - Stocks Overbought
Earnings Season - Small Rally As Earnings Season Starts The stock market rallied slightly on Monday as this week starts earnings season unofficially. Technically, 24 firms have already reported results. But the main swath of earnings season is the in next 3 weeks. On Monday, S&P 500 was up 2 basis points which was a…
July Empire Fed Index Bounce Back
July Empire Fed Index - Big Rebound There was a major bounce back in the July Empire Fed Index. So, calling for a recession based on some sentiment reports from June was always a dubious proposition. Trade hurt sentiment. In some surveys, the early June trade spat between America and Mexico had a negative impact…
Another New Record High: S&P 500 Up 20.22% In 2019
Another New Record High - Big Friday Rally Caps Off Solid Week The stock market increased again with on Friday with Another New Record High as this spectacular year continued. S&P 500 was up 0.46%, Nasdaq was up 0.59%, and Russell 2000 was up 0.78%. S&P 500 is finally exiting the triple top area it…
Fed Ignores Inflation & Labor Market
Fed Ignores Inflation - Mixed June PPI Report It's an interesting market mix as Fed Ignores Inflation and the Labor Market Reports. Headline PPI inflation was 0.1% monthly. It met estimates and was the same as May. On a yearly basis, it was 1.7% which met estimates and fell from 1.8%. Inflation readings that include…
50 Basis Points - Will the Fed Cut Rates Soon?
50 Basis Points - Another Rally: 2019 Has Been Fantastic Will the Fed make the move to 50 Basis Points Rate Cuts soon? Large cap stocks rallied again on Thursday. S&P 500 was up 0.23% which puts its July gains at 1.98% and its year to date gains at 19.67%. VIX fell 0.77% to 12.93.…
June Core CPI Beats Estimates
June Core CPI - Jobless Claims Fall Sharply Before getting into June Core CPI let's review the apparent uncertainty. It appears uncertainty is hurting the economy more than weak demand. We will see how far uncertainty can take us. But I don’t see it leading to a recession. If a recession was about to be…
S&P 500 Record High - Hits 3,000 For The First Time On Dovish Fed
S&P 500 Record High - New Record High For Stocks As Fed Turns Dovish Another record this week as the S&P 500 Record High turned heads. Interestingly, the market didn’t fall much when the odds for a 50 basis point cut fell from approximately 30% to very close to zero. Now the odds are back…