Powell Testimony & Fed Minutes Signal July Rate Cut
Powell Testimony - Dovish Press Conference Powell Testimony during the Fed minutes were highly Dovish in tone. Wednesday was a big day for the Fed. Powell testified before the House Financial Services Committee. Also, they released the June Minutes. Let’s start by looking at the testimony. It was completely wrong to say the market was…
Stocks Await Fed Minutes Which Could Invert the Yield Curve
Stocks Await Fed Minutes - Mostly Flat Ahead Of Fed Minutes Stocks Await Fed Minutes and stay flat with anticipation. They have declined slightly from their record high. Mostly because they were overbought. And also because investors questioned how dovish the Fed would be after the solid jobs report. If I was a Fed member…
Small Businesses Become Increasingly Uncertain
Small Businesses - Consumer Credit Increases Small Businesses are starting to become uncertain as consumer credit increases. The consumer has deleveraged this cycle. So it's not bad thing if the consumer takes out more revolving credit. Even though its savings rate is low. As you can see from the chart below, consumer credit growth was…
Apple Drives Frothy Market Lower
Apple Drives Market Lower On Monday Apple Drives the Dow, the Nasdaq, and the S&P 500 lower. But the Russell 2000 also fell, so that’s not the whole story. First let’s look at Apple. Apple stock fell 2.06% on Monday after an analyst from Rosenblatt stated the iPhone XS may end up being "one of…
June Labor Report Beats The Highest Estimates
June Labor Report - Job Creation Beats Estimates Interestingly, the June Labor Report actually be the highest estimates. Unlike many expected, the May labor report was revised to show 72,000 jobs created instead of 75,000 jobs created. April reading was revised down by 8,000. However, the June report showed 224,000 jobs created which beat estimates…
Stocks Decline After June Jobs Report Beats Estimates
Stocks Decline - Fall On Solid BLS Report Stocks Decline even though the BLS report was strong. Friday’s action was very interesting because the BLS report beat estimates. But stocks fell because the odds of a rate cuts fell. The market had been back to hoping the Fed would save it. I actually think the…
Weakest ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Since July 2017
Weakest ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI - Weak Factory Orders May ended up having the Weakest ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI in nearly two years. May factory orders fell 0.7% monthly which missed estimates for a 0.5% decline. That’s pretty bad. Especially when you consider that the April reading was revised to show a 1.2% monthly decline instead of…
May Construction Report Terrible, But Solid June Motor Vehicle Sales
May Construction Report - Very Weak Residential Construction Growth The May construction report on spending was terrible. Mostly because of weakness in residential construction. It was down 0.8% monthly which missed estimates for 0.1% growth and April’s 0.4% growth. To be fair, April’s reading was revised up 4 tenths, so the comp got tougher. The…
10 Year Bond Yield Makes 52 Week Low While S&P 500 Hits Another Record
10 Year Bond Yield - Another Rally On Tuesday 10 Year Bond Yield - Before getting into the 10 Year Bond Yield, let's review the market. S&P 500’s winning streak hit 4 days on Tuesday as it hit a new record high. It’s close to significantly distancing itself from the prior 3 record highs which…
Non-Recessionary - Weak June Manufacturing PMIs Review
Non-Recessionary - Weak, But Not Disastrous Manufacturing PMIs June ended up being Non-Recessionary which shocked many investors. Calls for a recession grew louder. Despite the stock market at its all time high and weakness in the regional Fed manufacturing reports. Some investors were prepared for brutal manufacturing PMIs. That didn’t happen, which is a positive.…