Semiconductors Bring Down Stocks Despite Solid Economic Reports
Semiconductors - Stocks Fall Slightly Despite Good Economic News Semiconductors ended up bringing down stocks even in light of great economic reports. The stock market fell 0.16% on Friday which isn’t a big deal in itself. But surprised investors because retail sales and industrial production both beat estimates. Regardless of what stocks say, I’m more…
Scooter Revolution Hits A Snag As Businesses Lose Money
Scooter Economics The scooter revolution is isn’t as sexy as autonomous cars, but scooters will be more important to transportation in the near term. That’s because most trips are short and autonomous car technology won’t be implemented for at least a few years. Specifically, 35% of all personal trips are less than 2 kilometers and…
Q2 S&P 500 EPS Expected To Fall 0.3%
Q2 S&P 500 EPS - Amazing June Continues Interesting numbers are coming out for the Q2 S&P 500 EPS. June has been a great moth as May was a blip on the radar for this year thus far. Investors expected the market to wait for either a dovish Fed or great economic reports before rallying or possibly falling.…
CFOs Fear A 2020 Recession
CFOs Fear - Are Rate Cuts A Problem? CFOs Fear a 2020 Recession. The Fed is probably going to cut rates by September which means investors will be quick to fear the worst, which is that this cycle is over. That’s not necessarily the case as the Fed cut rates in 1995, elongating the 1990s…
Oil Stockpiles Increase Sending WTI Down 4%
Oil Stockpiles - Another Small Decline In Stocks Oil stockpiles and the stock market fell slightly on Wednesday. Probably because the rally to start the month made the market overheated. The market is waiting for economic news on Friday and the Fed’s decision on Wednesday to decide where to go. Specifically, S&P 500 was down…
Disappointing Inflation Helps The Fed
Disappointing Inflation - Big MBA Applications Report Before getting into Disappointing Inflation, let's review the MBA Applications. MBA applications report showed huge growth numbers that were shocking at first glance. In the week of June 7th, the composite index was up 26.8% weekly compared to 1.5% growth in the previous week. Growth was high mostly…
10 Year Bond Yield - Everyone Was Wrong
10 Year Bond Yield - Stocks Reverse On Tuesday Before getting into the 10 Year Bond Yield, let's review the stock market. Finally, after a huge spike in June, the market appears to have hit a wall early in the trading session on Tuesday. S&P 500 closed 0.8% below its morning high. Its morning peak was about 37…
Small Business Confidence Improves Despite May Correction & Chinese Tariffs
Small Business Confidence - Redbook Same Store Sales Growth Slows Before getting into Small Business Confidence, let's review the Redbook. We go into every GDP report with the assumption that the consumer will drive GDP. Consumption drives about 2/3rds of economic growth. However, consumption growth was weak in Q1, but headline growth was strong. It’s…
S&P 500 2% From Its Record High
S&P 500 - Another Rally, But Why? The S&P 500 stock market rallied again on Monday as my bearishness in the past couple trading days has been misguided. I’m open to the possibility that this will be like 2016 when the economy turned around after a tough slowdown, but I don’t see evidence of that…
2% Chance The Economy Is In A Recession
2% Chance - Unemployment Indicator Shows No Recession There is only a 2% Chance that the economy is currently in a recession. One common recession indicator is the bottom in the unemployment rate. It’s not a terrible concept, but it’s unrefined. It was recently proven to be a misleading indicator. Some bears got excited by the 4 month…