June Dow - Best Since 1938
June Dow - Amazing First Half Ends On A High Note June Dow is the best since 1938. Also, the best first half we've seen in many years ended on a high note. S&P 500 increased 0.58%, Nasdaq increased 0.48%. And Russell 2000 increased 1.29% on Friday. As you can see from the chart below,…
Core Inflation Stays Below Fed’s 2% Target
Core Inflation - May PCE Report Details In May, headline PCE Core Inflation was 0.2% monthly. That beat estimates for 0.1%, but was below April’s reading of 0.3%. On a yearly basis, PCE was 1.5% which beat estimates for 1.4%, but fell from 1.6% in April. The all important core PCE inflation rate was 0.2%…
Financials Rally After-hours As Banks Raise Their Dividends & Buybacks
Financials Rally - Stocks Finally Rally Financials Rally as we finally see the stock market rally. The 4 day decline wasn’t much of a losing streak. There was only bad day out of the four. The decline ended on Thursday. S&P 500 increased 0.38%. Unlike Wednesday, this time the gains were maintained. Nasdaq increased 0.73%…
Improved Pending Home Sales Helped By Very Low Rates
Improved Pending Home Sales - Core Durable Goods Orders Weak, but Not Declining Before getting into Improved Pending Home Sales, let's review Durable Goods. The economic surprise index has been cratering in America. But it’s barely negative in Europe. It’s at -68.1 in America and -0.3 in Europe. In America it’s falling because of disappointing…
Stocks Await Results Of G20 Summit In Japan
Stocks Await Results - 4th Straight Decline Stocks Await Results of the G20 Summit. Saying stocks have declined 4 straight days sounds worse than it is. The market is only down 1.37% from its record high. A scary aspect for the bulls is the market has peaked at around the same level 4 times now. Yes,…
Weak New Homes Sales & Case Shiller Price Growth
Weak New Home Sales - March 2020 Recession Signal Weak New Home Sales may signal a recession. The May new home sales report wasn’t good. A negative revision to the March reading means the cycle high was November 2017. You can see this from the chart below. Median new home sales peak occurs 28 months…
Stocks Fall On Hawkish Fed Comments & Weak Consumer Sentiment
Stocks Fall on Hawkish Fed - Big Tuesday Decline Let's discuss Stocks Fall on Hawkish Fed. The stock market fell sharply on Tuesday. Partially because of the weak consumer confidence report. And partially because Bullard was less dovish. It’s surprising stocks weren’t down more when you consider how high they are and how bad the…
Tariffs Cause Big Decline In June Consumer Confidence
Tariffs - Redbook Sales Growth Weakens Slightly Before getting into Tariffs, let's review Redbook. Redbook same store sales growth reading in the week of June 22nd was more interesting than usual. On Tuesday the consumer confidence report came out. Investors want to know if the decline in consumer confidence actually means consumers are spending less. Remember,…
50 Basis Point Rate Cut In July Possible
50 Basis Point Rate Cut - Big Decline In Small Caps, Large Caps Fall Slightly Before getting into the possibility of an upcoming 50 Basis Point Rate Cut, let's review the current market. S&P 500 fell slightly for the 2nd straight time on Monday as it was down 0.17%. The market is cautiously waiting for the G-20 summit. But investors…
June Manufacturing Slowdown Is Highly Likely
June Manufacturing - Markit Sees 1.4% Q2 GDP Growth Before getting into June Manufacturing, let's discuss Markit reports. Markit expects Q2 GDP growth to be 1.4%. That’s with PMI data from the first 2.5 months of Q2. Once we get the final June Markit PMI report we will know Markit’s complete estimate. Obviously, having about…