Recession Odds Increase As Both ISM PMIs Fall In July
Recession Odds Increase Latest flattening of the yield curve implies the recession odds are increasing. To be clear, even if this indicator shows there is a 100% chance of a recession, that doesn’t mean it will happen. This is one of many indicators I use. Ever since the start of the year, investors expected Q2…
Energy Weight In S&P 500 - Lowest Since 1990?
Energy Weight - Stocks Rally After Worst Day Of 2019 Before getting into Energy Weight let's review the markets. Historically, we have seen President Trump pull back on hawkish trade rhetoric when the stock market falls. Fed has also helped stocks by shifting dovishly after big declines. Nothing of that nature happened on Tuesday, yet…
Labor Market Is Nearly Full
Labor Market - Job Growth Continues To Slow The all-important July monthly Labor Market Report got swept under the rug. Mostly because of how much news has come out on earnings, monetary policy, and the trade war. Another reason the July report didn’t get as much coverage as usual is it came in near estimates.…
Trade War Catalyzes The Worst Day Of 2019
Very Wild Monday Monday was the worst day of the year for stocks as the most interesting week for markets was followed by the most interesting day. Last week was the worst week of the year for stocks. I’m not saying these past few days have been interesting because of the declines. It’s because of…
Slowing Economy - Yet Solid Labor Market
Slowing Economy - Economic Growth Is Slowing Before getting into the economic data from last week about the Slowing Economy, let’s get a baseline understanding of how the economy is doing. In June, the ECRI coincident index’s growth rate was 1.6%. It bottomed at about 1% in 2016. Real yearly GDP growth has been falling,…
Worst Week Of 2019 For Stocks
Worst Week - Another Down Day For Stocks Suddenly in the Worst Week of 2019, stocks are in a losing streak as the S&P 500 fell again on Friday. It’s now down 5 straight days since it reached its record high on July 26th. It is down 3.1% in this losing streak. This decline is…
Pending Home Sales - Strong Growth In June
Pending Home Sales - The Biggest Week Of 2019 Before getting into Pending Home Sales let's review the markets. The week to start the month of August was probably the most jam-packed week of the year. Especially in terms of news events and action in markets. We’ve had earnings reports, a new tariff announcement, and…
Tariff Announcement Sends Stocks Cratering
Tariff Announcement - Volatile Thursday With a major Tariff Announcement - Thursday was one of the most interesting days of 2019 for markets. Stocks rallied on bad economic news and then sold off. Mostly because President Trump issued a new tariff on China. Right after the Fed was hawkish, the market immediately went back to…
Optimistic Consumers & Falling Home Price Growth
Optimistic Consumers - Very Large Consumer Confidence Improvement June is showing a spike in Optimistic Consumers. The June Conference Board consumer confidence index was revised higher from 121.5 to 124.3. Which makes sense considering how solid the retail sales report was. Even more impressively, the index exploded higher in July to 135.7. It beat estimates…
Yield Curve Flattens - Stocks Fall After Fed’s ‘One & Done’ Rate Cut
Yield Curve Flattens - Hawkish Fed Causes Stocks To Fall Yield Curve Flattens - as Fed’s hawkish cut caused the stock market to decline moderately on Wednesday. Which is exactly what you’d expect. The market was pricing in 2 more cuts by the end of the year. S&P 500 fell 1.09%, Nasdaq fell 1.19%, and…