Calm Before Another Volatility Storm?
-Markets pause, no spx breech! -Living in the upside down -TGT is reality, cooling inflation is not -Energy, financials rolling over? -Skew picking up, vvix dropping -Holiday trading, don’t get off your game Get your trade on - This week's Profits and Losses -JPM, /MES -New ideas, GOOGL, introducing the Catapult! SPX Expected Move-- -last…
Will Inflation Cooling Be Enough to Take Markets Higher?
The cooling CPI numbers rallied the market recently, but now the weaker demand is showing up in earnings. Bad earnings and poor guidance is hurting individual stocks. How long will it take for declining earnings to eventually take down the rest of the market? Let's take a look at some of the factors that will…
Is a Market Bottom In?
-The rip, the rally, and out of the box -does the rally have legs? -trashed tech rallied -financials ripped on dramatically lower rates? -dollar move is impressive -bonds and volatility -is the crypto crush contained? Get your trade on - This week's Profits and Losses - GS, TSLA, FXE, /ZB - new ideas, VIX, IBM,…
Are You Watching the Bond Markets?
The bond market continues to get annihilated. The S&P 500 continues to trade in the volatility box. The question on every traders mind is - with the yield curve inverting and rates rising at what point does that break the market?
The Force is Strong with the Volatility Box!
-Good jobs and a rally? -Back in the box! -Bifurcation in sectors, dollar, and bonds -Da FED and what yield curve denotes -Volatility structure is all wrong -Election trade? No but CPI vol is hot! Get your trade on - This week's Profits and Losses -EEM, SPY, XLE, /ES, TSLA, TLT SPX Expected Move -last…
We Need to Feel the Fear in Bitcoin Before it Rallies, Don Kaufman Tells CoinDesk TV
TheoTrade co-founder Don Kaufman shares his analysis and outlook for BTC as the cryptocurrency’s price has fallen nearly 70% in the last 12 months. Bitcoin must drop further, says Don, before it becomes an attractive investment. The lack of volatility in Bitcoin, and its decoupling from indexes such as NASDAQ and the S &…
Bearish Break and Back in the Volatility Box
-FED gets hostile -financials holding markets together -energy should be very afraid -where is the volatility? -oh my holy skew -will bonds break us? -don't forget, JOBS!
A Pivotal Fed Moment for Markets?
-Breaking bad, outside the volatility box - where we are headed, /ES levels you need to know -Big, bad, and ugly, a tech earnings slaughterhouse -100 billion reasons to be concerned about tech -Will the Fed dove out? Probabilities of hiking! -GDP was great, durable goods a disaster, PCE as expected -short something? Here are…
Is the Market Rally On the Rocks?
The S&P 500 hits the upper edge of the weekly expected move and immediately reverses on the day. With big tech earnings disasters the short covering rally is in danger of fizzling out. Here's what to look for the rest of the week...
Did Bonds Hit the Point of No Return?
- price action in the SP500 is a vol slopfest! - inside the vol box 3600 to 3800 - correlations remain incredibly high (sign of vol) - vix still holding the 30 handle w/ backwardation - volatility is alive 3641 to infinity and beyond - bonds have collapsed, capitulation? - implications of spiking yields, buybacks,…