Critical Confluence of Market Volatility is Upon Us
Fitch downgrades US debt sending markets down to the lower edge of the weekly expected move. If you think the downside is over for the week look at the major announcements still ahead for the week. AAPL and AMZN earnings could easily send the tech sector lower whether the earnings are good or bad. The…
Big, Bad, and Bullish?
-Fed hikes and markets rally -This is NOT a retail rally -Two-sided trade ? -Low volume / limited liquidity - XLE & XLF -NASDAQ rebalance had no material impact -Correlation makes a brief appearance -Earnings on deck AAPL, AMZN -Will bonds/rates threaten the rally? SPX Expected Move-- - last week - 61.59 (expected move 5…
A Market of BarbieSwift & Summer Drift
The Fed raises 25bp as expected and Jerome Powell says absolutely nothing at the press conference. In fact one of the reporters illustrated how strong the economy is by the Barbie movie sales and Taylor Swift concerts. You can't make this stuff up. As for trading the rest of the week recognize we have not…
Is NASDAQ Volatility a Wake Up Call?
--volatility suppression on a down day --a wild A/D line illuminates serious risks --bail before big earnings ? --FED 25bps, Powell quiet, yield inverted most since 81 --eventually we fade the AI/GPT trade SPX Expected Move-- --last week-- 56.05 (expected move 5 day week) --next week-- 61.36 (expected move 5 day week)
The BullS-Hit the Bid
The bulls hit the bid and send markets over the edge of the weekly expected move. The risk is clearly to the upside as over the next 2 days market can explode higher. So far earnings season has been lackluster. Tesla stock is flat and Netflix is down slightly. Basically unchanged. Here's what you need…
Market Distortions of Epic Proportions
--Extreme moves- everywhere ! --SPX Expected Moves --Bonds --Dollar --Mega market cap --Financials --Energy --the Consumer ? --GIS, WBA, CAG / WMT, COST, XRT SPX Expected Move-- --last week-- 59.00 (expected move 5 day week) --next week-- 56.05 (expected move 5 day week)
Blow-off Before the Breakdown?
Markets exploded higher off this mornings CPI print which displayed cooling inflationary pressures. Don explores the SP500 breach of expected move and its implications for the remainder of the week as well as if the NASDAQ's Magnificent 7 will continue to fuel this rally.
When Good Markets Go Bad!
-SP500 took a mild hit, NASDAQ did not -Markets are stagnating until Tech says otherwise -Jobs, ADP & the FED -Where does the 10 year rate break markets? -Volatility, skew, and negative gamma -Position update SPX Expected Move-- -last week - 53.67 (expected move 3 1/2 day week) -next week - 59.00 (expected move 5…
Will the End of the Quarter End the Rally?
-Window dressing or real rally? -Order-flow in tech has changed -Expected Moves XLF & XLE vs QQQ -Bonds & yield curve -Position update SPX Expected Move-- Last week- 54.73 (expected move 5 day week) Next week- 53.54 (expected move 3 1/2 day week)
Taking Profits in an Uncertain Market
Ultima Trades strike again as we close several profitable positions this week in a highly uncertain market.