Earnings Announcements in Full Swing
Welcome to the crapshoot game of the earnings season. Many don't know that if you look at 1000s of earnings trades and try to sell premium the return is a whopping zero! However, if you place trades before earnings on the side of the trend this gives you a slight edge. Here's a few examples…
Fearing Housing Crash, UK Homebuilders Give Away Furniture, Parking Lots To Buyers
Want $26,800 of free furniture? Of course you do. And all you have to do to get it is move to London. As Bloomberg reports, “London homebuilders are offering to pay sales taxes, gift 20,000 pounds ($26,800) of furniture and the chance to win a free parking space as Britain’s vote to leave the European…
Wild Turkeys And Teflon Markets
A long time ago, in a market far, far away, a bloody military coup in a NATO member country seeking European Union membership would have mattered. It would have mattered even more if analysts suspected that the siege was in fact engineered by an increasingly autocratic President intent on consolidating his grip on power. Why?…
Turkey Military Coup Proves Once Again That Geopolitics Matters
In today’s world you never, ever, want to underestimate geopolitical headwinds when it comes to investing and trading. The more interconnected and interdependent markets become and the faster news travels between participants in those markets, the more likely it is that events in far-flung locales will have an outsized impact at home, wherever home happens…
Premium Sellers Should Fear the Low Volatility
TheoTraders must be aware of when to be a buyer or a seller of option premium. In this weekend edition let's take a look at how you can do that. At TheoTrade we have done the hard work for you. Not only do we have the answer, but analysis behind that so you understand. Here…
Friday Chart Challenge: High Yield Edition
Here’s a chart that should give you pause: This is how we summed the situation up on Thursday in response to some suggestions that perhaps the US high yield market is somehow going to avert being dragged kicking and screaming into a default cycle by the beleaguered energy complex: “Remember that time someone said ‘I…
Trading An Uncertain World
Someone forgot to tell the terrorists that we’re in the middle of an increasingly epic bout of risk-on sentiment driven primarily by expectations that the Bank of Japan is all set to start throwing cash out of helicopters (figuratively speaking - maybe). Displaying a complete and total lack of regard for the ongoing global equity…
Froth in the Markets and the Pepsi Challenge
Markets have surged 170 points since Brexit to new all time highs. Here is one scan I use to find contrarian set ups. One of the stocks this scan came up with was PEP. Let's review the trade and what to expect with earnings coming up.
One Bank Answers “The Three Big Questions”
Two narratives we’ve been keen on exploring over the past several months are, i) the extent to which buybacks are responsible for persistent strength in US equities, and ii) how much of the bid for US Treasurys can be explained by negative rate policies in Japan and Europe. These are key considerations, especially if we…
Stocks Shake off Bank Of England “Hold”, Open At (New) Record
Goldman had a conviction going into Thursday’s Bank of England announcement. Here’s what the bank’s FX team put out this morning: “Today, the Bank of England holds its monetary policy meeting, which we expect to be the catalyst for a further downward move in the currency. As we explained in yesterday’s Global Markets Daily, the…