Economic Reflections On Jobs Friday
In light of today’s white hot jobs print, we wanted to address something that’s been bugging us for quite sometime. It’s one thing to observe an economic trend and explain, preferably using data, why you think it’s undesirable or otherwise suboptimal based on your utilitarian view of what’s best for society. That’s great. It’s called…
And The BLS Said, “Let There Be Jobs!”
Now you see why we made such a big deal out of the Fed, Treasury yields, and data dependence on Thursday. Allow us to show you two headlines that hit the terminal within eight minutes of each other Friday morning: FOMC’s Dec. Mtg ‘Still Most Likely’ Time for Next Hike: BofAML ‘Let’s See Yellen Get…
Time to Go Bearish on AAPL?
The jobs report hasn't moved the markets in a while. Tomorrow will probably be no different barring any major surprise. Let's look at a few trade set ups for tomorrow. There's one I like in AAPL that we can set up in tonight's video...
One Bank Looks At “Surprises” — And We Weren’t Surprised With What They Found
On Wednesday, Goldman was out with an interesting note on the extent to which Treasury yields react to economic data surprises. Right off the bat that sounds boring, right? Well it’s actually not. This wasn’t just an academic exercise for the sake of meeting some research quota. It matters a great deal these days because…
The Queen’s Bazooka: Full Bank Of England Post-Mortem
Now days, it’s always advisable to curb your enthusiasm when it comes to hitting the keyboard frantically as soon as a developed market central bank announces something big. Why? Because in all likelihood you’ll end up having to publish something an hour or so later with a title like “market fades latest central bank Hail…
Grinding Higher into Friday Jobs
Tops are a process and bottoms are an event. The topping event continues to unfold today as the SPX continues to flat line at all time highs. The first place to look for the market to go is to test the break out level. From there we will know a lot more. Let's also take…
Stop The Presses, Oil Is In A Bear Market
Ok, so oil is in a bear market. Stop the presses. It’s funny because earlier this year we were marveling at the fact that if things kept going like they were going (i.e. if crude kept grinding inexorably lower), oil would be moving from bull market to bear market on a near daily basis. We’d…
Bond-pocalypse Now: Will Japan Be Ground Zero For The Implosion?
Well we woke up to red screens, or at least what counts for red screens in these manipulated markets. “Mixed” is the new “down.” This screengrab from CNBC.com pretty much says it all: While any Japan fatigue you’re feeling is understandable (we suppose there’s yet another way to use the term “Japanification”) we pretty much…
Are the Central Banks Losing Control?
Another muddled day from the markets. There's so much liquidity that volatility is being squeezed out of the markets. The question we have to ask ourselves is what happens when the markets turn their backs on central banks around the world? At some point can the central banks throw everything they've got at the markets…
“We Ain’t Buyin’ It Anymore”
On Tuesday we got two pieces of evidence to support the contention that the market has lost all faith in the ability of authorities to rescue the world from subpar growth and the kind of universal “Japanification” that threatens to drag the majority of the developed world into the deflationary doldrums. We realize people have…