“As Good As It Gets”?
On Friday we noted that according to BofAML’s latest weekly flows report, every asset class saw inflows last week. Equities, loans, high yield, investment grade, and munis. It was all bid. We also observed that 50% of the bank’s clients expect the divergence between near record low Treasury yields and record high stock prices to…
GOOGL Technicals Pointing Towards a Sell-Off
Jeff Bierman joins TheoTrade today. Jeff brings his extensive background in fundamental and technical analysis to TheoTrade. He spent 8 years at thinkorswim and then TD Ameritrade. With Jeff's help TheoTraders are setting up a bearish put spread in GOOGL. TheoTraders are now able to combine probabilities and technicals to create high probability trade ideas…
‘Pipe’ Dream: Oil Rally Continues Amid Short Squeeze, False Hope For Freeze
Well, you can certainly tell everyone is on vacation. It’s quiet out there although we imagine there have been some loud nights in the Hamptons of late. Oil’s up (again) and that’s certainly helping the bid for risk. Ostensibly this is all thanks to Saudi jawboning and today we got some vague commentary out…
To Hedge Or Not To Hedge
On Friday, we looked at the extent to which the S&P may be headed for its sixth consecutive quarter of falling EPS growth. That’s the longest stretch since the crisis. Nevertheless, markets are riding high, most recently thanks to the Bank of England’s kitchen sink moment (rate cut, gilt buying, corporate bond purchases) and a…
Massively Unchanged! Get Long Volatility!
With IV at record lows TheoTraders should not sell premium. All it takes is one volatile week to kill your account. With the record lows in volatility there is only one way volatility can go and that's up. Here's how we plan to get long volatility...
Friday (In)Sanity Check
“We don’t see recession risk likely in the near term,” St. Louis Fed chief James Bullard said on Friday. Well, that’s great Jim but when it comes to corporate profits, the recession started four quarters ago and now, it looks set to continue into Q3 2016. We were perusing Bloomberg headlines when we ran across…
Markets “Lulled To Sleep” Despite Big Trouble In Little China
Well, thank goodness for continued strength in crude and rising expectations for global fiscal stimulus because the data dump out of China overnight was pretty disheartening and in a rational world would have probably sparked a steep selloff. Instead Asian bourses were mostly green. As for the data out of China, basically everything missed. Industrial…
Watching for the Character Change
After seven years of a relentless bull market, and now with super-low implied volatility, traders are getting restless and looking for some two-way tape. When corrective price action does return, it will be accompanied by a change in the “character” of the intraday price action, which can tip us off that cracks are appearing in…
How About A Kiwi?
Let’s pretend like you don’t care at all about the kiwi and thus have no idea what the New Zealand central bank did on Wednesday. Now, have a look at the following chart and try to surmise the reason for the sudden spike: You’d certainly be forgiven for thinking that the RBNZ hiked rates. That’s…
One Day After Collapsing, Oil Skyrockets On Saudi Comments, IEA Report
Remember Wednesday’s rout in crude? Well, what a difference a day and a tape bomb makes. At around 9:30 this morning, Dow Jones reported the following: Saudi Arabia’s energy minister says talks with producers could include possible action to stabilize oil market, Global demand still strong; mkt rebalancing taking place Supply outside OPEC is declining…