The Fed's Policy Situation
Summary Of Fed Policy The chart below is a great summary of the monetary policy situation. It shows the S&P 500, the current Fed balance sheet, the future balance sheet, the Fed funds rate, the Fed funds futures, the long term expectations, and the dot plot. Now that stocks have done well for a couple…
Fed’s Balance Sheet Increases This Week
Houses Too Expensive? This sentiment indicator for housing is interesting because it isn’t a contrarian indicator. Usually when you see investors euphoric about stocks, you want to sell. In this poll, the slightly over heated market is being met with skepticism. People in the housing market are much more rational than stock speculators. Although the…
Why Tracking the Weekly Expected Move is Important
Stocks saw selling today before rebounding some of those losses by end of day. Watch this video to keep the selling in perspective and understand how you will know months in advance if a big decline is going to happen... Find out more on How Expected Moves Drive Markets during this free online seminar replay:…
Consumers Take Out Gobs Of Debt
Credit Card Debt Is Over $1 Trillion The consumer is at a crossroad. If wage growth accelerates in 2018, everything will be fine, but if the economy turns south, the consumer will be in a world of hurt. Some readers might say that if the economy goes south, the consumer will always be in pain.…
Is The Bitcoin Bubble Like The Tulip Bubble?
Slack In The Labor Market We’ve discussed wage growth in many articles. The chart below is a great depiction of what might occur in the next few months. It shows the spread between the U6 unemployment rate and the U3 unemployment rate. This shows the amount of people who are underemployed. The axis where the…
Valuations are Dead, Here is What Matters Now
In tonight's important video market update we look at how 5 stocks are really driving the market higher. Watch this video to find out how the markets are really working right now... Find out more on How Expected Moves Drive Markets during this free online seminar: https://archive.theotrade.com/em/
Inflation Won’t Cause Problems If The Increase Is Moderate
How Much Will Inflation Pick Up We’ve discussed inflation in previous articles. I think it will increase because the M2 money velocity is up, the NY Fed underlying inflation index is up, and the ISM manufacturing index is up. There has also been a further decline in the unemployment rate which should lead to inflation…
2018 Expected To Have The Fewest Countries In A Recession Ever
Most Assets See Low Volatility The stock market had a slightly negative day as the S&P 500 was down 0.02%. The Russell 2000 - RUT was a big laggard as it was down 1.26%. Ever since I warned about it being overextended, it has fallen. The VIX actually had a big up day which was…
Battling Euphoria with Limited Risk and Limited Time
In tonight's video market update we look at the stages every market cycle goes through and why this current market cycle is in the euphoria stage. Watch this video to find out what to do in this kind of market... Want to know How Expected Moves Drive Markets? Register for this free online seminar: https://archive.theotrade.com/em/
Dudley Resigns Opening The Door For A Revamped Fed
More Fed Changes Over The Weekend Over the weekend Bill Dudley announced his resignation increasing the turnover at the Fed which was already about to be large with all the empty positions from previous resignations. The Fed officials recognize that President Trump is cleaning house which appears to be why they are resigning. There isn’t…