Fund Managers Overweight Emerging Markets & Underweight U.S. Stocks
Fund Manager’s Survey We’ve looked at some of the results from the BAML fund manager’s survey in a previous article. Let’s look at some more results to help us forecast where asset prices are going. The chart below shows the z scores of a few assets. When the z score is high, it is overbought…
Markets Display Imminent Risk Signs
Markets selling off slightly the last few trading days which has led to an expansion of volatility and the expected move not seen for a long time. Watch this video to get ahead of the risks in the market. To learn more about how to trade volatility and the VIX watch this free online seminar…
Wall Street Is Very Optimistic
Extreme Positivity The stock market was down marginally on Tuesday. GE is getting blamed for a lot of the selloff, but, since the Dow is price weighted and GE stock is in the teens, it has very little effect on the index. With such a big fall, some are wondering if GE will be kicked out…
Junk Bond Weakness Limited To Healthcare & Telecommunications
Relative Valuations We’ve seen a coordinated stock market rally in about every index globally. The chart below compares the recent Shiller PEs of the American, Japanese, European, and Emerging stock markets. The dotted lines are the average since the start of this bull market in 2009. As you can see, America, Japan, and Europe are…
This Omen Means Range-Bound
In this video we discuss the omen that means we are entering into range bound trading. Watch this video before you unnecessarily panic at what lies ahead... To learn more about how to trade volatility register for this free online seminar, “How to Trade Volatility and the VIX” here: https://archive.theotrade.com/vix/
Q3 Earnings Were Just Like The First Half
More On Q3 Earnings Not only are the percentage of companies reporting beats and the beat rate better than average, but also the percentage of companies issuing negative guidance is lower than average. 58 companies have issued negative guidance and 28 have issued positive guidance. Just like how companies usually beat estimates, most of the…
QE Tightening To End In 2-4 Years
Fed’s QET To End Between 2020 & 2022 The chart below brings light to the timetable I’ve been discussing with regards to the Fed’s balance sheet unwind. I stated that it would be unlikely for the ECB to start an unwind before the next recession because its QE program will end in late 2018 or…
Volatility, AMZN, and all eyes on Bonds
How do you know when professional traders are hedging their positions? Look no further than the VVIX which measures the volatility of the VIX or put another way - volatility of the volatility index. In tonights video we examine volatility, algo trading in AMZN, and the bond market. Watch this video before you put on…
This Week Is An Important One For Tax Reform
Tax Plan To Be Worked Out This Week Last Thursday the Senate released its plan to cut taxes which sent the market falling because the tax cuts start in 2019. The Senate’s amendment process starts on Monday. That’s when the details will be hashed out. We will probably see the market move on headlines regarding the debate.…
Bonds Rocked and Expected Moves Hold Markets Together
The indices saw selling right to the edge of there expected moves for the week and closed the week inside the expected move. Watch this crucial video so you understand how the move in bonds will impact the overall market next week... Find out more on How Expected Moves Drive Markets during this free online…