Stocks Rally Along With Yields
Home Buying Conditions Weakening The chart below shows the upper income home buying conditions compared with autos and large household durables. The chart aims to show the business cycle is ending because the buying conditions have fallen below the autos index. I think this indicator isn’t that great. As you can see in 1995, it…
Gold Rallies While U.S. Real Estate Falls
Tech Leads The Way The table below shows the year to date performance of a few different assets. As you can see, the tech sector has done well which is consistent with their mostly great earnings reports. The sector outperforming the market during the correction is a good sign because tech needs to be the…
Weekly EM Shredded - V Bottom or Big Range Coming?
Stocks continue to rally up after the abrupt sell off. In tonight's video newsletter we look at the probability of this being a V bottom vs setting up for another move lower. Don't trade tomorrow without watching this video!
Inflation Is The Main Story Of 2018
Retail Sales Hurt GDP As it turns out, Q1 2017 had poor GDP growth because of weak consumer spending growth. The poor January retail sales means Q1 2018 might have weak GDP growth. As a result of the retail sales report and the CPI report, the Atlanta Fed GDP Now estimate for real consumer spending…
Is The Economy Entering Stagflation?
Stagflation Fears Not Valid Yet The two top stories of the day on Wednesday were the retail sales report and the CPI report. The combination of a weak consumer and heightened inflation brings about the fear of stagflation which is a stagnant economy and high inflation. This is probably an extreme worry because we’re far from reaching…
All Market Risk Factors are Still Present
Interest rates continue to move higher at the 10 year hit 2.9% today. The rising interest rate environment is still a risk and volatility remains elevated. Watch this video right now to find out what to expect for the rest of the week... For more information about trading Futures watch this free online seminar called…
A Reason You Shouldn’t Buy The Dip
Top Crowded Trades The chart below shows the fund managers’ opinions on which trades are the most crowded. As you can see, the long bitcoin trade has become a less popular choice which is understandable because it crashed. Surprisingly, my top call ended up being correct. Recently the total cryptocurrency market cap has rallied from…
70% Of Fund Managers Say The Economy Is Late Cycle
Review Of The Fund Manager Survey It's useful to check the Bank of America fund manager survey to see where money managers are positioned. The great thing about the fund managers survey is it provides depth to your understanding of the market because fund managers often have the opposite opinion of the market. You can…
Flushing the Weak Hands Every Day
The elevated volatility we have seen is going to be with us for the near future. The volatility will test the resolve of every trader as the market will continue to try and shake out the weak hands in the market. Watch this video right now to find out what to expect... For more information…
Stocks Explode, Reversing Some Of Last Week’s Correction
Record ETF Selling Last Week As you can see from the top chart below, there was record S&P 500 ETF selling last week. Obviously, that’s an incomplete statistic because total ETF holding are much larger now than in 2008 during the financial crisis. The bottom chart tells the whole story as the percentage of total…