Stocks Attempt to Make a Higher Low… But Caution Signals Are Flashing
Stocks are giving in the ol’ college try for a bounce here, but I continue to see warning signs internally. For one thing, the Japanese yen is rising - as are bonds, which tells me capital is still seeking refuge in safer areas of the market. So, there’s room for improvement. That’s not to say…
TheoTrade’s Tale of the Tape: Risk-Off Signals Are Flashing All Over
Hello TheoTrader, Markets went out at the lows last week, and made sure that we didn’t fall asleep at the wheel over the holiday weekend. What matters now (and what concerns me most) when it comes to stocks is what’s happening at an internal level. Over the past few weeks, I’ve shared some of…
The S&P 500 Surges as “Shiny Objects” Distract Investors
The big index was up nicely today (after the worst week since Silicon Valley Bank blew up). Verizon (VZ) and Nvidia led the way as Apple (AAPL) failed to dazzle with its product-line reveal. If you take a step back and consider the market’s current prospects, it becomes clear that, for everything that’s happened, players…
The Market Just Got Serious - Here’s What to Do
The S&P 500 has taken a big downside hit, lower by almost 1.7% toward the close. We saw an intense concentration of liquidity and volume - more on that in a few. It’s clear that a lot of deadwood has been cleared out. If you weren’t prepared for this, you’re in serious trouble. (I’m sure…
The Yield Curve Has Steepened Again - Now What?
Well, one of the most significant macroeconomic developments in the past couple of years just unfolded. I’m talking about the “re-steepening” of the yield curve. A couple of years back, there was a fair bit of hysteria in the market when the curve inverted. That is, the 10-year Treasury yield began offering less return than…
We Got More Signs of a Weakening Economy - Here’s How to Play It
Data-focused investors and traders sat down to some of the softest hiring growth data in nearly four years today… and they reacted accordingly, sending stocks mostly lower. Weak jobs data adds up to a weak consumer finance sector. At the same time, as the numbers get worse, we’re seeing some consumers tighten their belts, which…
The S&P 500 Is Trying to Hold It Together, But the Odds Are Stiff
There’s some big data coming our way this week: jobs data. We’ll get a glimpse of how the market is primed to receive positive or negative news, whether it’s “bad news is good news”... or the other way around. The Fed, of course, is set to cut rates this month. The market could take them…
September Is Showing Us Just How Rough It Can Be
I guess the “animal spirits” wanted to make sure we were paying attention after the three-day holiday weekend… September is historically one of the weakest, and by some measures the weakest, months for stocks. They’ve managed September gains only around 41% of the time going all the way back to 1897. Today we got a…
Get Ready: We’re In “the Suck” Before the Storm
It was supposed to be so easy! We were supposed to get dynamite earnings reporting from Nvidia and the markets were supposed to rally like crazy from Wednesday night on… That’s not what we got. We got meh earnings and two days of drifting, low-volume, sludgy slop-fest. No fun. But I think we could get…
Here Are a Couple of Helpful Comparisons for “Getting” This Market
Nothing happens in a vacuum and everything’s connected - the thing that makes markets interesting can also make them… well… challenging. Today, we’re going to use a different comparison device, and look at the relationship between energy and consumer spending - and we’ll confirm what we find using utilities and copper. (Not just throwing darts…