Volatility Is Here to Stay
Mr. Toad took a wild ride this week… only to end up just about where he started. Massively unchanged. Volatility has collapsed back down toward 20, but don’t think for a second that that means the fun’s over. I’m going to show you some hijinks in the bond market that point to even more turbulence…
The Japanese Yen Was the Canary in the Coal Mine - As I Warned
Hello and Happy Friday TheoTrader! Back in April, I sent you a letter talking about a potential currency crisis, specifically on the Japanese Yen. As it turns out, we were months ahead of the curve, as the Bank of Japan finally lifted off the zero bound recently, which led to a massive rebound in the…
This Is What We’re Up Against
Institutions Are Packing Some Serious AI Heat By Greg Madison for Professor Bierman Hi, everybody! It’s Greg here with you. I hope everyone’s having a great weekend, and folks in the weather’s path (yours truly included) are staying safe out there. When Professor Bierman first lays his big-picture thesis to you, with words to the…
The Defensive Sectors and VIX Have NOT Given the All-Clear Signal
The market has been a rollercoaster lately, with the resilience of defensive sectors and the modest bounce in the technology sector painting an intriguing picture. This movement hints at a temporary adjustment rather than a full-blown recovery. The VIX, still holding strong above 22, reinforces this idea and suggests we might be on the verge…
This Is Required Viewing
Professor Bierman is on vacation for the next week or so, and he asked me to keep in touch with everyone at Man vs. Machines while he takes a well-deserved break. Now, what I don’t know about machine-markets could fill a book, although I’m learning… learning… I’m old enough to remember it; I was working…
How to Stop Worrying and Learn to Love Volatility
Sure, the VIX is down from the other day’s damn near historic high above 65. But it’s still more than double what it was just a month ago. Then again, there’s more than one way to measure volatility. And it’s not like volatility is a bad thing, at least if you’re ready for it -…
I Was Right About This Week’s Huge Downturn
Well, it’s finally happened. I’ve been warning for months - since it was cooler outside - that the carry trade in increasingly expensive Japanese yen was likely to blow the markets apart. And wouldn’t you know it… the mad traders’ rush to unwind their suddenly-expensive yen carry trades has at last blown the markets apart.…
The Yen Carry Trade Exploded… And Contagion Is Spreading to the U.S.
Sunday night’s headlines were unsettling as an onlooker - you could watch the carnage erupt in big Asian markets like Korea and especially Japan, where the Nikkei just had its roughest session ever. So I knew even then it would only be a matter of hours before the carnage jumped back over the International Date…
Three Names on This Week’s Watchlist
Hello, everyone, Blake Young with you on this historic Monday - historic in terms of the volatility we’re seeing in this big downturn. The big indexes are down anywhere from 2.7% to 3.2% as I write this. But, contrary to what you might think - and contrary to what’s certainly being said in the financial…
TheoTrade’s Tale of the Tape: Now the Smart Move Is to Wait
Well, by now everyone has pretty much accepted that we’re in a risk-off market environment. The public is starting to panic, as the unwind of the carry trade in the Japanese yen triggers margin calls across the world. I raised a substantial amount of cash over the past couple of weeks, and even had members…