Are You Ready for the New Economic Era?
If you had the power to know the future, would you seize it? I’m not saying that I, or anyone else that I know does, but I would venture to say that markets are the closest thing to a crystal ball that we have, assuming you know how to read them properly. If you can…
CPI Is About to Rock This “High Volatility, Tight Range” Market
The market’s been sticking traders with a weird, and, sure, let’s call it frustrating, conundrum for the better part of three weeks now. It goes something like this… Stocks are bouncing around in a tight 100-point(ish) range… but volatility has been really high, with the VIX pegged above 20 most of the time. It’s like…
Stocks Are Coiling Up for a Run Higher
Investors seem to be in the grips of fear, uncertainty, and doubt right now, and we’d be foolish to ignore the very real concerning events around the world. And yet… When I look “inside” the market, at its internals, just about everything points to a continuation of the bull trend. There are opportunities in tech,…
Utilities Break as the S&P 500 Holds Its Range
The S&P 500 has been drifting for a few weeks in a 100-point range that has yet to be broken. Even today, S&P 500 futures (ES) finished down 0.90%... on light volume. The market as a whole has held up, but interest-rate-sensitive parts of the market are starting to break. Utilities, for instance, were off…
TheoTrade’s Tale of the Tape: Inflation Trade Goes 3/3
Over the past few weeks, I’ve been adamant that the Fed is playing a dangerous game on the inflation front. Starting another round of money printing before long-term inflation targets have been achieved isn’t just reckless, but borderline negligent. So, I’m not surprised to see that an inflationary sector led the market again last week.…
Risk Is Building with Markets Trapped in a Range
The S&P 500 moved higher today… to finish out the week basically unchanged! It’s stuck right now, but not for long. I talked this morning about a buildup in gamma risk that raises serious questions about how to get in position for the weekend - more on that in a second. The S&P is stuck,…
What the Dollar’s Rebound Means for Your Portfolio
The world's reserve currency has staged a major rebound in recent weeks after declining since mid-April. During this time, stocks continued their bull market, while bonds rallied to multi-month highs. As the largest and most liquid market in the world, the currency market significantly influences all others - stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and commodities. This raises…
We’re Going to Play Along with Inflation Here
We need to get real about inflationary pressures; they haven’t gone away. This economy offers us high prices and pinched supply chains that are likely to push prices even higher. The trend in oil and gas is no exception - prices are rising, creating a new uptrend that could see them push higher by 20%…
Today Was Quiet… But Trading’s About to Get Good
The S&P 500 has been practically asleep, but I’m looking for volatility to pick up in a big way - starting with everyone’s favorite retail stocks. This is what you need to know…
Geopolitical Tensions Rise As Stocks Teeter Near Highs
A category 4-equivalent typhoon is barreling toward some of Taiwan’s most important semiconductor factories… Ground war is spreading in the Middle East… Some of the biggest, busiest ports in the United States are frozen by strikes… The cherry on top: Fed Chairman Jerome Powell sounded ever-so-slightly hawkish when he said the Fed was in no…