How to Ride the Market’s “Great Risk Rollercoaster”
Another week with a wild start… and a weak finish, down about 1% for the day. This market is trading in an extremely tight range and has been for a looong time now. It’s a market desperate for a catalyst just isn’t finding any - not in data, not in news, not in Tweets. In…
The Charts Say We’re On the Edge of a Move
The S&P 500 is in a funny place right now. On the chart I’ll show you in a second, it appears the market’s ready to make a breakout… or drop… by about 5%. I won’t claim to have a crystal ball; it could go either way. That means we need to find a setup that’ll…
The Market Is Stuck in a Volatility Box
After getting knocked down this morning stocks began to creep up slightly in the hour or so before the close, but don’t read too much into that. This market is desperate for two things - a catalyst and some clarity. Trouble is, there’s not much of either right now. The market just can’t get a…
The Bulls Backed Down the Bears (Again) - Here’s What to Do
Another week… another gap down to start. This time, however, the bulls reasserted control of the tape much more quickly than before, and now we see stocks pressing back and onward to new highs. I said last week that I expected software to emerge as a leader in the wider tech sector, and I…
Here’s the Upside in Redefining the Bull Market
What's in a name? I asked our TheoChat trading room members whether we're in a bull or a bear market. A clear supermajority replied that they felt we were in a bull market. When I asked how they defined it, the typical answer was, "higher highs and higher lows." But the answer just prompted more…
Markets Are Holding Up… But Mega-Caps Are Cracking
You know how it goes - markets get shaky but one or more trillion-dollar mega-caps drag ‘em kicking and screaming higher. We heard that story who-knows-how-many times in 2024. Usually NVDA was the workhorse; sometimes it was TSLA or AAPL. But this is 2025. This is the market’s “new day.” And right now it’s the…
How We Can Trade on GDP
Gross domestic product is the single broadest, cleanest measure of the health and growth of the economy. The number we got today missed the forecast and came in significantly worse than the previous quarter, to boot. How big was the miss? Big - 3.1% during the previous quarter down to 2.3% today. But, there’s a…
Don’t Get Caught In This Market Crossfire
There are a ton of earnings hitting us today and over the next few days - Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride. But that’s later. We need to push that aside. There are bigger things to be concerned about right now. The market went into its usual pre-FOMC holding pattern, drifting around sideways… until a “classic” Trump…
Stocks Are Recovering From Yesterday’s “Hiccup” - Here’s What Comes Next
DeepSeek sent the big indexes anywhere from -1.5% to -3.1% “deeper” yesterday, but as we approach the closing bell today we’re now well into a recovery. At a time like this it’s important to remember that one day doesn’t break a trend. It doesn’t make one, either. In fact, there’s a lot to like in…
Why DeepSeek Just Deep-Sixed U.S. AI Stocks
We’re all adults; we all know there are no “sure things.” Just the same, for the past two years, all the talking heads out there have been sure AI was set to revolutionize, well, everything. Sure - AI has been revolutionary and has transformative potential, but its reliance on infrastructure is a hurdle on the…