Traders Bet on Volatility as the S&P 500 Falters
The S&P 500 had its worst day in three weeks as it drifted lower by more than 0.5%. That number isn’t necessarily anything to write home about, but I’m seeing some things happening behind the scenes that, potentially, are ominous. Last week I gave you a signal from the volatility markets that we could be…
Sector Defections Leave the Markets at a Crossroads
This is a weird market - and not funny “weird.” It’s like a really impressively tall house of cards… with a super-shaky foundation. Traders are clearly bullish about AI (what else is new?), the possibility of rate cuts, and earnings. But we’ve been hitting these all-time highs on the back of some of the most…
Everyone Overlooks This… Until Their Dividends Start Exploding
In this morning’s Live Chat session, we talked about free cash flow. (You can check that session out below). I know, “free cash flow” doesn’t sound like a thrill a minute, and it certainly doesn’t generate headlines, even in the financial media, the way that mergers and acquisitions, innovative products, or boardroom scandals might. But…
This Market Tech, More Tech, Nothing but Tech Right Now
When you’re trading, it pays (literally) to develop a list of “usual suspects” you can use to get a read on the market in a matter of seconds. Financials, energy, tech - those are a few of my usual suspects. What I see isn’t all that great… The other day it looked like Christmas came…
We Need to Tick One More Box to Unleash the Bulls
The rubber’s not hitting the road right now. Stocks are still hanging around their all-time highs, while the Nasdaq has yet to register a new one in a couple of weeks. For a while now, I’ve been looking for a new high there to confirm the way’s clear for the bulls to run. In other…
Here’s the Final Warning for 2024
Historically, December is a very bullish time for the markets - even more so in election years. This usually comes down to the big players chasing performance, and jockeying for tax advantages in the year ahead. So from that perspective, a bet on an “up” December makes at least some sense. But - and this…
Christmas Came Early for the Markets
The last TheoNight update before December trading kicks off. Here's Don...
The Data Shows Three Market-Jolting Forces on the Move
Maybe they thought we wouldn’t notice, what with it being the day before Thanksgiving and all, but we got more than 15 major and minor economic data reports today - everything from GDP to jobs to crude oil stocks inventories and just about everything in between. Not everything in the reports was big news, and…
The “Turkey Trade” Has Stocks Spinning Their Wheels
This trading pattern isn’t uncommon at this time of year as volume slackens a bit. Stocks are consolidating near their highs, while more tech stocks begin to behave bullishly. Disinflation is the name of the game, and that’s usually a good environment for stocks, especially Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN). The big exception here is…
Bonds Pop, Gold Drops, and China Makes a Move
Bonds and gold historically have a positive correlation; they tend to move together. But that’s been breaking up as of late, and that’s what happened today. Whether they’re breaking up for good is a different story. Treasuries saw their biggest rally since August, but gold had its biggest drop since the beginning of the month.…