Last week I revealed present market conditions that suggest a 5% to 10% decline in the S P 500 in the next 30 days. And during a daily session, I showed everyone a portfolio hedge for stock positions - and a VIX trade to capitalize on a VIX move above 20. Here we are, a week
What a day… We had about $2.7 trillion worth of monthly options expire today - they’re off the books. For all that, we’re back in the box. We’re down around 1.7% on the S P 500, which isn’t a big deal in the grand scheme of things… because we’re still in the box. We got to
There are seismic shifts taking place in the market right now. 2025 has pretty much started off as expected with stocks making new all-time highs in the U.S. Our reading of sector flows kept us on the right side of the market year-to-date. But the biggest developments have been going on abroad, and
It doesn’t grab the same headline space as inflation or jobs, but manufacturing’s still a really important economic indicator with the juice to move stocks over the medium- and long-term. Some of the most important data we get from this sector comes from players in the New York and Philadelphia regi
Microsoft Corp (MSFT) announced a breakthrough in quantum computing with its new Majorana 1 chip. As you might expect, this breakthrough is leading option traders to quantum stocks. This in turn begs the question: Is a breakout imminent? Well, here's the summary “upshot” of the discovery - from Micr
U.S. indexes are having a relatively quiet start to this holiday-shortened trading week. We see them spinning their wheels near all-time highs. Bearish sentiment remains elevated, delivering a ready-made “wall of worry” for the bull market to climb. But, while the action (or lack thereof) here in th
Right out of the gate today we hit the upper edge of the SPX 97-point expected move… and stopped. The VIX is sloshing around on the floor, below 15 and falling. For the week, we’re “massively unchanged” on very low volume. For weeks on end we’ve been trading in more or less a 200-point range,
The market reaction was fairly muted, but the data’s there to see: According to CPI and PPI, inflation’s heating back up. Fed Chairman Powell’s relatively hawkish Congressional testimony this week indicated the central bank is still concerned with it. But hey, even if you don’t trust the data - or P
Headline risk… geopolitical chaos… a shakeup of the international order… trade war… radical surgery for the federal government… inflation… There’s a lot going on right now, but the markets have barely budged. As of today, we’re still well inside the weekly expected move - more on that in a few. That
