The Market’s Calm on the Surface - But Risk Is Lurking
The S&P 500 closed today massively unchanged from where it started the week - tame compared to last week’s mayhem. I’m seeing the words “back to normal” and “calm” thrown around a lot out there. The VIX came down below 20 today, which might make it seem like calm is returning, but don’t buy it…
Two Sectors Just Tried and Failed - And That’s Great for Us
“Breakout” is a word you’re going to hear a lot if you spend more than three minutes with me in my daily TheoChat sessions. They’re significant events in the daily life of a stock. For folks who are new at this, it means pretty much what it sounds like. Breakouts are when price plunges through…
The Fed’s Done - Now the Markets Face Volatility
Mark my words: Once J-Po leaves the stage, there’s nothing left but chop. Volatility is coming back in a big way. Powell is basically saying the administration will drive more uncertainty, and that stagflation is a possibility. The market’s not going to take that well. They’re already not taking it well - we got a…
Here Are the Winners and Losers at This Turning Point
After a torrid two-day short-covering rally which saw stocks gain as much as 3.7%, we're seeing a fresh round of selling here in the U.S. market. Precious metals and those miners are a bright spot, though there’s a weaker dollar to thank for it. Of course, everyone’s looking forward to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments…
The Smart Way to Play China’s Big Week
If you've been following Chinese stocks (the top destination of lots of global capital these days), you’ll know volatility has been expanding as price has been rising. Even the recent consolidation has seen volatility remain elevated and expanding on today's breakout. In China, the prospect of the next round of stimulus is the exclusive driver…
Fade the Rip: The Market Says There’s More Trouble Coming
We’ve been waiting for it! We’re getting something that looks like a rebound… but isn’t really. I’ll be “that guy”: Fade the rip. If you don’t know what that means, well, you will by the time tonight’s video’s done. A lot of people out there will be all over this “rebound,” but they’re making a…
Inflation Isn’t Going Away, But These Sectors Don’t Care
The CPI and PPI releases this week came in more or less at estimates - nothing to alarm the talking heads, anyway. They show inflation slowing down… but not receding. This isn’t a surprise to anyone who’s been paying attention. While this was good enough for the bulls to at least try for a rally…
This Market Just Can’t Get Up from the Mat
The market tried for a rally off today’s CPI report, and we were up a little ahead of the close, but there’s no getting around it: Every bounce we’ve seen today (and stocks actually started rising in the pre-market) has been sold like it’s goin’ out of style. Every bounce. This brings us to volatility.…
How to Play Silver During Tariff-Driven Volatility
You can’t separate the wild swings we’re seeing from the on-again, off-again, on-again tariffs, and the uncertainty that creates. The bulls are trying to buy any headlines that could be even remotely positive, and the bears are trying to sell the bad. And these conflicting “tariffs up, tariffs down” headlines are often coming within minutes…
Are We Ready for a Squeeze? Let’s Find Out
I don't know about you, but I'm a tired bear. Sure, getting bearish at a good time usually works out great… but instinctually we want to be bullish, right? I wouldn't go that far for myself, but you do reach a point when you want to see some sort of rally. Give me a nice…