I’ll say it again, right away: The bears are making a comeback. The market hasn’t collapsed, not at all, but risk has most definitely broken the surface and shaken any kind of bull case you can think of. The SPX expected move is… jumping, to put it politely; 96.83 this week out to 126.57 next
Today, we’re digging into two themes in two key sectors: the continued strength in industrials and an early-stage setup in utilities that’s just too compelling to ignore. Industrials are building on bullish momentum, supported by surprisingly strong U.S. manufacturing and services PMI numbers. That
We’ve got ourselves a little bit of market mayhem brewing… and it’s not coming from where most people are looking. Everyone’s eyes are glued to the S Ps, but it’s actually the bond market that’s lighting the match. Yields are spiking, auctions are flopping (I mean, the most recent Treasury auction w
We’re getting ready to close the book on two straight sessions of (slight) declines on the indexes as the odds rise that the bulls will take a breather. And yet, overall, bullish signals keep flashing and volatility is relatively subdued, especially in comparison to where we were a few weeks ago. If
As we approach the close today, one might have assumed a much bigger response to Moody's downgrade of U.S. debt. We saw the S P 500 notch a lukewarm 0.13% decline. Historically, though, the response to such downgrades has been much bigger the day of the downgrade and the coming weeks and months afte
We are closing out the week with some fireworks with markets clocking a two-sigma move to the upside, leaving the expected move in the dust. We were pricing in a 130-handle move in the SPX and got 300. That’s not a rally so much as a mispricing meltdown. It’s upside volatility. This is happening at
If you’ve been watching the market, particularly volatility and thinking, “Is this thing broken?” you’re not wrong. In April, Trump’s tariffs pushed the VIX top 60 during a flat-out market rout, but just a few weeks later… we’re seeing some of the lowest volatility we’ve had all year. It’s like the
This market feels calm… and that should scare you. If you’ve been with us for a while, you know that a quiet tape like this often sets the stage for outsized moves, like Monday’s upside explosion. Now, we’re sitting well outside the expected move in the SPX. Probability suggests we’re due for a pull
I can’t blame investors for being skeptical at all. After a six-week stretch like the one we just came through, with its huge swings on the big indexes, the rise and fall… and rise… of critical sectors, and chaotic, near-total uncertainty from day to day, people are feeling punch-drunk. And so when
