Something Strange Is Happening in Gold and Bonds
Normally, bond and gold prices move in tandem. For instance, if the Fed, say, cuts interest rates and expands the money supply, gold will advance as short-term bonds rally on the cut in rates. Now, there are times when the prices diverge but right now we’re seeing something pretty extraordinary: Higher bond yields failed to…
Markets Pause… But Volatility Is Far from Dead
The VIX dropped more than 8% today, which probably felt great to traders who’ve been put through hell… one 5% daily swing at a time… this month. The cherry on top? They get the day off tomorrow. Calm, right? All good, right? Back to normal. Nope. There’s virtually no volume today and it’s the same…
Two Sectors That Can Hand Us Up to 5% a Month
Reliable bullish setups are a little thin on the ground right now; setups that have the potential to hand us reliable income in the form of solid dividends are even more rare. But that’s exactly what I’m looking at right now - and what you’ll see in just a second. See, there’s a very high…
I See Some Strength… But It’s Almost Too Quiet
The fireworks seem to be over, for now at least. There are still some underlying issues in the market, some uncertainty. A look at median spreads shows they’re some of the widest in years right now, which says liquidity is low and suggests market-makers are cautious. No surprises there. That said, there are some real…
All Quiet on the Bearish Front
All Quiet on the Western Front was a semi-autobiographical novel written about World War I from the perspective of a young German soldier who dies a month before the end of the war, on the very same day his superiors report “all quiet on the Western Front.” As I think about the bulls’ perspective on…
From Rally to Rollover: It’s Whiplash Week in the Markets
The markets closed up today, nearly 2%, which would be nice if this were anything like a normal market. But I’m here to tell you, these gains - 2%, 1%, 5% - don’t mean a thing. We’re going to spend some time talking about price action, sure, but that has to take a back seat…
Earnings Season (and Much, Much More) Is Coming Up Fast - Here’s What to Do
There’s a lot to talk about tonight. Earnings, for one; we’ve got some big, systemically important banks set to report starting tomorrow. And unless you’ve been hiding out up on a mountain somewhere, you know this earnings season is going to unfold against a historically volatile backdrop, with some of the biggest moves we’ve seen…
Stocks Will Try to Hold Gains, But China Matters Most Now
“A 90-day pause” on tariffs was the secret sauce. That was all it took for majorly beaten-down stocks to go ballistic this afternoon, anywhere from 6.4% to 9.3% by 3 PM. (Don’t get comfortable - more on that in a minute.) More than 75 U.S. trading partners caught a break, but there’s one country that…
How to Get Your Money Safely Through to the Other Side
There’s no need to complicate things, no reason to sugarcoat it… It’s a rout. Stocks are in an unambiguous bear trend right now. Copper and oil are breaking down; this tape has “recession” written all over it. Overseas, Chinese firms are planning buybacks to keep their bull running, and it looks like the government there…
“It Could Be a Trap” - Beware a Bond-Market Fast One
Today we got something that seemed like a “normal” selling day with only two sectors down more than 2%. This seems a little ridiculous in perspective, given the lack of volatility for the past couple of years, but it’s definitely an improvement at a time when the VIX hits a 60-handle. Tempting, then, to think,…