Here’s the Right Way to Look at These Rallies and Selloffs
Let’s say an athlete ties a record that’s stood untested for 20 years. Is the performance a fluke or one-off? Or is it a sign that the record might fall soon, that something bigger is coming down the road? What’s the proper perspective? With the market wracked by uncertainty, that’s the question in front of…
The Rally Is Real… But Don’t Get Comfortable
If you’ve been with me for more than two-and-a-half minutes, you’ll know I’m the first one to call BS on a rally I think doesn’t have what it takes, that I’m sure will trap unwary traders and clean ‘em out. This rally happens to be the real thing. After a really long stretch, volatility has…
Why Big Tech Names Are Defying Market Gravity
Remember that old line about how the markets “can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent?” Well, here we are, and while savvy traders like us don’t have to worry about staying in the green, the market still feels like a puzzle where none of the pieces fit quite right. Economic signals are flashing…
A Bad Data Deluge Swamped Markets - And More Is Coming
The number is in… and it wasn’t great. Today’s economic data dump showed growth shrank by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025 - the first decline since 2022’s kinda-sorta recession-lite. One more quarter of contraction and we’re in a recession. The markets know this, and they’re not crazy about it, and what volume there…
This Market’s Going to Live (or Die) by Tech
The bulls out there have the momentum right now, the makings of a real beachhead… for now… in the near-term. Of course, that beachhead could be swamped by the end of this week with so many Big Tech earnings coming down the pipeline. There’s data to contend with, too. Tomorrow’s GDP reading will be essential;…
We're in a Holding Pattern - And That’s OK
Remember the movie Braveheart? There’s a scene where the Scottish are about to battle the English, and Mel Gibson’s William Wallace is telling his soldiers to “hold!” His point was: Wait for the perfect moment to engage the English in battle. When both sides begin to set up for battle, it makes sense that someone…
Recovery Under Fire: Markets Rally Amid Looming Risks
The S&P 500 closed up nearly 5.6% after an absolutely wild week. We had a brutal selloff Monday only to rip right back to where we’re closing today. That puts us at about the halfway point between the index’s low and high. But we’ve got to have perspective; it took pure chaos to get us…
Trade Price Action, Not Headline Buzz
On the surface, the headlines look pretty good, certainly less bad than they were a week ago. We’ve had some more data filter in in the meantime, but we shouldn’t be fooled: data isn’t the trend. For instance, we’ve seen durable goods spike and new home sales rise… right? Well, net-net home sales are…
Volatility Is Down… But Not Out
We opened with a huge move to the upside this morning. The market’s liking what it’s hearing right now in terms of cooling off the trade war and Elon Musk leaving D.C. to go back to Tesla (after one hell of an earnings miss yesterday). The VIX dropped below 30 and stayed there for the…
Stocks Have Erased Monday’s Losses… But It’s Too Early for Bulls to Celebrate
Stocks notched a nice recovery rally today, with the indexes up around 2% to 2.25% in late trading. But to be clear, I’m not inviting everyone back into the water just yet. I need to see more from the tech sector before making that call. Sure - tech, as tracked by the XLK ETF, is…