Any Guidance Is Good Guidance
Weak Earnings Guidance In a shock to no one on the planet, Q1 earnings season has been weak and guidance has been mostly non-existent. The situation is so unusually negative that when a company reports earnings and gives disappointing guidance, it’s a positive because at least there was guidance. We saw that play out with…
Huge Spike In Small & Micro Cap Stocks
Huge Rally In Small Caps Even though the stock market has rallied in the past few weeks, there hasn’t been pure optimism about COVID-19 getting better until Monday. That’s because the work from home stocks such as Amazon and Microsoft along with the bubble stocks like Zoom and Shopify have been leading the charge. These…
World Won’t Be Much Different After COVID-19
Low Income Workers Usually Get Hurt A non-consensus viewpoint is in this cycle the lowest paid workers will get hit less badly than they usually do in relation to the rest of the labor market. As you can see from the chart below, the bottom 50% of workers by net worth had the biggest decline…
There Could Be A Mild Retest
Nice Friday Rally (Week Still Down) This wasn’t as big of a rally as some of the ones we’ve seen in previous weeks, but it was very nice as it ended the week on a solid note. The stock market was down slightly this week as expected. Specifically, it rose 1.39% on Friday and fell…
Consumer Sentiment Stabilizes For Now
Consumer Sentiment Improved Slightly As expected, consumer sentiment improved slightly in the second half of April. That’s because it already fell so much in the first half of the month and because stocks rallied. Bad news is the initial spike in mid-April has worn down. That’s probably because stocks stopped increasing at a quick pace…
Market Is Due For A Correction
Hope Fades The stock market started off positively in the morning after rallying on yet another terrible jobless claims report. This situation changed after the WHO reported disappointing results about remdesivir which Gilead countered. And this entire situation is very odd. We never had conclusive proof that the drug worked, yet stocks rallied on hope.…
3rd Straight Decline In Jobless Claims
Further Decline In Initial Jobless Claims Thursday has meant doom for the economy as the number of initial claims builds to epic proportions. It’s likely the unemployment rate is in the high teens based on the latest data from initial claims. We have seen stocks rally on these terrible initial claims reports which is probably…
2nd Biggest 20 Day Rally Ever
Nice Rally On Wednesday The stock market recovered from its recent declines on Wednesday as the S&P 500 was up 2.29%. It was led higher by Chipotle which reported great results. Its stock was up 12.15%. Shockingly, Snap turned the entire tech sector higher. It's possible almost no one knew it had that much power!…
Mortgages Are Going Into Forbearance
Same Store Sales Growth Falls Further As predicted, same store sales growth in the Redbook report is coming down. That’s because the hoarding is over. Undoubtedly when the economy recovers we will see higher growth, but we aren’t there yet. We are stabilizing along the bottom. We can expect the economy to start to rebound…
Oil Crashes To The Lowest Price Since 2001
Oil Crash Part 2 On Monday, the May WTI contract which was expiring sold off hard. That wasn’t important because it’s not really the price of oil. Real price of oil is the June contract. It cratered on Tuesday just in case you thought the Monday decline wasn’t real. Plus, Brent crashed too. This wasn’t…