Zero Firms Expand Part Time Hiring In Philly Region
Philly Fed Index Hits A Record Low On the one hand, the Philly Fed non-manufacturing index hitting a record low isn’t a huge deal because it was only started in 2011. On the other hand, it would probably be at a record low even if the data went back several decades. It is becoming clearer…
Ignore Negative Oil Prices (They’re Irrelevant)
Negative Oil? Sort Of The biggest story on Monday was the decline in the May oil futures contract which expired on Tuesday. Most people understood oil futures prices could go negative in an unlikely scenario because it costs money to receive the physical commodity. Oil is expensive and difficult to contain. That's why the shipping…
No One Is Giving Guidance (Uncertainty Rules)
March Activity Plummets We knew the March Chicago National Activity index would be bad. Most of the March economic reports are already out and they were terrible. However, even those low expectations weren’t met. We didn’t have a specific estimate for this report because such a guess is futile. However, it's still surprising how bad…
Hope Dominates The Stock Market
Is This What Euphoria Feels Like? The stock market is expressing extreme hope that either the economy reopens in May or June without any trouble or that a treatment or vaccine are coming soon. At least there are a few ways for the bulls to win! We are probably not at a moment of extreme…
Jobless Claims Set To Fall Further (Great For Stocks)
Leading Indicators Crash March leading indicators report showed a 6.7% monthly decline which beat estimates for a 7% decline. If you can believe it, this was the best beat in 8 years. The title of this index being “leading indicators” is laughable now because we have known the 2nd half of the March economy was terrible…
Stocks Spike On Thursday Evening On Hopes Of COVID-19 Treatment
Thursday Night Futures Spike Let’s start with the most important latest news. Futures market exploded to the upside. Stat News came out with a report that the early signs of the drug remdesivir seem to be positive. Obviously, if a drug that treats COVID-19 comes out, people can go back to their normal lives. The…
Initial Jobless Claims Fall Which Is Bullish For Stocks
Jobless Claims Fall As predicted, jobless claims fell sharply in the week of April 11th. Firstly, last week’s report showed claims were revised up from 6.06 million to 6.615 million which puts it just below its cycle high the week before. The addition of the 5.245 million claims in this latest report puts the unemployment…
WTI Lowest Since February 2002
Stocks Are Now Down On The Week It has been very tough to predict near term price action, but for the first time in a while the week has gone exactly how expected. Many forecasted a week with a lot of up and down action in which the market ended modestly positive. So far, we…
Worst Retail Sales Growth Since At Least 1992
Lower Income Gets Hurt Again Poor and lower middle class always bear the brunt of recessions. That’s why the $1,200 stimulus check was targeted towards them. It would help if they got more money. But at the same time, unemployment insurance goes a long way towards helping people. Some people are making more money from…
Amazon & Microsoft Go Parabolic
Big Rally, New Bear Market High Shattering records, the stock market had a great Tuesday as it hit a new bear market high. At this rate, we could see a new record high before summer starts. However, stocks won’t continue at the latest torrid pace. This is similar to the rally off the low in…