Hiring Is Down 15% Because Of COVID-19
Hiring Slows In a shock to no one, the data shows hiring is slowing. The only companies that are hiring are the ones seeing more demand because of COVID-19 which is a select few. In this bucket you have necessities like groceries and healthcare. You also have online retail, but even Amazon is running into…
No Liquidity In This Market
Best Rally Since 1931 Ends The stock market just had its best 3 day span since 1931. Gains were enormous off the low on Monday. It’s no surprise that stocks took a breather on Friday. Even if you’re a bull, you had to expect that to happen. Many were hoping for a down day with…
Jobless Claims To Increase Further Next Week
Jobless Claims In Context Jobless claims are measured nominally, which means comparing them to the past isn’t apples to apples. Before COVID-19, claims were very low on a nominal basis and extraordinarily low on a population adjusted basis. It was by far a new record low. Now, we are in the opposite situation as claims…
Biggest 3 Day Rally Since 1931
Another Huge Rally The stock market has been on a rampage. It’s now up about 19% from the trough on March 23rd. Dow is up almost 23% which catalyzed the Wall Street Journal to say a new bull market is here. It's unlikely that 3 days of rapid gains makes a bull market. Even if…
Record Jobless Claims (30 Sigma Event)
Where Will Earnings End Up? Some investors are completely ignoring where 2020 earnings will be because recessionary earnings are a temporary dip. Other are calling for the end of the world because earnings are crashing. Some are in between. We should be looking closely at earnings. It gives us a guide as to how low…
Stocks Stabilize On Hopes Of Fiscal Stimulus
Markets Are Normalizing Markets are finally normalizing. That sounds weird because the 1 month and 3 month treasury bills fell to slightly negative yields. However, it's because Wall Street is starting to get its arms around COVID-19 and markets are moving less wildly. VIX was actually up on Wednesday as it rose 2.28 to 63.95.…
Fed Saves The Day
Beginning of Earnings Season The start of Q1 earnings season has been good because the firms reporting earnings ended their quarter at the end of February. They barely had any impacts from COVID-19 in their reports. This would have been a great quarter for firms if COVID-19 didn’t spread widely. With the first 14 firms…
Biggest Dow Gain Since 1933 (5th Biggest Ever)
Insane Tuesday Rally This market never ceases to be interesting as COVID-19 has caused a huge spike in volatility unlike anything most have in our lifetime. This is similar to 1929 except this won’t lead to an elongated depression. It’s possible that Q2 GDP growth is worse than the Great Depression, but there will be…
Everyone Is Buying Groceries & Holding Chinese Stocks
Absolute Madness At Grocery Stores Sales at grocery stores and companies that sell products and services that help people work from home are experiencing hyperbolic demand. Their products and services are like an inverse chart of the Dow in the past month. This is like if the entire country was about to experience a snowstorm…
Fastest 30% Decline Ever
Another Selloff Even though this has been a painful selloff, Monday’s decline was the first back to back selloff in a while. The market had alternated between red and green days for 7 days. It’s now down 33.9% from peak to trough, making this the 5th worst bear market since 1946. As you can see from…