Unemployment Rate Could Spike To 12.8%
Extreme Negative Events Being Priced In Good news is everyone knows the Thursday jobless claims report will have well over 1 million claims which is the most ever by far. Bad news is it will likely happen. This negative event is probably priced in, but it’s still potentially the worst hit to the labor market…
Ruthless Bear Market Continues
New Bear Market Low Friday felt like an awful day for stocks because we hit a new bear market low. It looked possible that we could have the first back to back gains since early February, but that didn’t work out. It has been 26 days since we’ve had back to back gains which is…
Depression Predictions Get Worse (Yes That’s Possible)
S&P & IHS Markit Are Very Bearish The stock market is beginning to price in a depression. It’s unfortunate for investors that this bear market is not complete. But we need to see at least a 40% decline in the S&P 500 before we say a depression is mostly priced in. If the economy only…
Potential Depression On Its Way (Stocks Rally For Now)
Rallying In Face Of Disaster U.S. economy is possibly on the brink of complete disaster. There is a legitimate shot of the first depression since the Great Depression in the 1930s. This is a lot like the 2008 financial crisis in that sense. Historically speaking, the 2008 recession wasn’t that bad. It was only bad…
Spike In Jobless Claims & Decline In Manufacturing
Our First Official Recession Signal Everyone knows the economy is headed for a recession. Only questions are how long and deep it will be. This is the most unusual situation many have ever seen. Even in the terrible financial crisis, people didn’t know a recession has started as late as Q2 2008. We had a…
Wild Action In Markets Gets Wilder
Another Huge Decline Lately we have been seeing stocks do the opposite of what they did the previous day. Stocks fell Thursday, were up on Friday, fell on Monday, were up on Tuesday, and fell on Wednesday. Wednesday was another steep decline. But stocks managed to just barely avoid a new bear market low as…
Buy Stocks If You Don’t See A Depression Coming
JP Morgan Calls For A Depression If you think the U.S. economy is headed for a recession, you should buy stocks. That’s a sentence I never thought I would write. Turns out, stocks have already fallen about 30%. On average, stocks fall 37% in recessions. You don’t have much downside left if this is just…
Terrible Breadth Isn’t A Bad Sign
Stocks Rally Off Beaten Down Levels S&P 500 had its 7th straight day of a 4% or greater move which is the longest streak in history. Previous record was 6 days in 1929. The market hasn’t been up on back to back days for 23 sessions which is the longest streak since the fall of 2018…
Sharp Decline, But An Equally Sharp Rebound
Sharp Decline Incoming Base case scenario is a sharp decline in economic activity and a rebound either in the 2nd half of this year or early next year. We know Q2 will be a ‘kitchen sink’ quarter where growth will be terrible. Main question is how quick the economy recovers from this weakness. Q2 estimates are…
Black Monday Leads To Oversold Stocks
Awe Inspiring Decline (Could Be Time To Buy) It may sound crazy, but when everything that can go wrong is going wrong and when it seems like there is no light at the end of the tunnel, being optimistic is the best bet. As you can see from the chart below, the S&P 500 had…