Weak Consumer & Labor Market Continues
When Will COVID-19 Disruption End? Friday had yet another record number of COVID-19 cases, but we are on the precipice of strong improvement by the end of July. Specifically, there were 74,987 new cases which is obviously terrible. There were 946 new deaths which pushed the 7 day average up from 761 to 775. Good…
Fund Managers Overly Bullish & Netflix Disappoints
No New Record High Again S&P 500 once again didn’t surpass its June 8th high as some have been predicting it wouldn’t. There have been a few nights where the futures market suggested a new high was coming, but the cash session has yet to deliver. While flirting with this level, it simultaneously flirts with going…
Strong Old Data for Retail Sales - Weak New Data for Jobless Claims
Very Strong Retail Sales The consumer appears to have weakened in the back half of June and the first half of July, but that didn’t impact the June retail sales report. That’s because consumers were optimistic in the first half of June and still had extra income to spare. There was pent up demand. Monthly…
43 Days Without Back To Back Declines In The Nasdaq
Very Strong Day For Small Cap Value Wednesday was a solid day for all stocks, especially the value small caps. Russell 2000 value index was up 4.18% which outperformed the Russell 2000 which was up 3.5%. It’s nice to own the tech stocks because even when there is sector rotation into the other areas of…
Weak Labor Market & Election Are Big Risks
Housing Market Stays Strong Some investors didn't have any concerns about the potential for the housing market to slip backwards following this slowdown that started in mid-June. If you did have worries, the latest MBA applications data should calm your nerves. There really wasn’t a reason to be nervous because the housing market bounced back…
Vaccine Excitement To Power A Sector Rotation Out Of Tech
Moderna Set To Power Wednesday Rally There are a few vaccines being worked on. 4 are set to start being produced later this summer with the goal of having them be given out to people early next year. Vaccines are being produced before they undergo all human trials so we don’t need to wait for…
Consumer Still Lags In Mid-July
Economic Surprise Indexes Are Still High Citi Economic Surprise index for America is at a record high as the chart on the top left shows. Some have been calling for it to drop for a couple weeks now. At first, we thought it would drop because expectations would match the improvement. We need 2-4 weeks…
Did Nasdaq Just Peak?
3 Explanations For Monday’s Drop Monday looked to be a positive day for stocks before the market reversed in the afternoon. It was like a mini flash crash except it was easy to foresee because the tech sector and Tesla stock had been so overbought. In fact, heading into the day, Tesla’s 14 day RSI…
Early Signs Of Improvement On COVID-19? - California Closure Spooks Stocks
Optimistic About COVID-19 Investors are becoming more optimistic about the COVID-19 situation. Data on COVID-19 growth in some of the worst hit states has begun to get worse at a slower rate. Furthermore, we have experience on how to stop the spread and treat people better. If we already know how to stop the spread,…
Tesla Insanity Knows No Bounds
Tesla Spikes 11% Tesla stock rose 10.8% on Friday which means it’s now up 65.5% since June 12th. Investors follow Tesla so closely because it is representative of the bubble in growth stocks, particularly in electric vehicle firms. There would be no other way for such a large company to rally so much unless there…