Much Stronger Jobs Report Than Expected
Strong Jobs Report July jobs report marginally beat expectations. Estimates were lowered at the last minute to 1.675 million which made them easier to surpass. Even still, 1.763 million jobs created is much better than expected. Many thought there would be about 0 jobs created. This report was down from last month’s 4.791 million. Even…
This Market Has Gone Insane
Historic Insanity CNN fear and greed index rose 4 points on Thursday to 74 which is just below extreme greed. S&P 500 is 9% above its 200 day moving average. It was 11.5% above it before the pandemic. It seems like we were approaching euphoria this year before the pandemic and now the trend has…
Jobless Claims Fall: Great Sign For The August Economy
Solid Jobless Claims Report The jobless claims report was actually really good this week. It was even better than last week which means the trend is improving. This report was from the week of August 1st. That means the economy improved without the coming fiscal stimulus. It tells us COVID-19 was the main reason the…
Near Record Euphoria In Nasdaq 100
Extreme Market Gets More Extreme The stock market and precious metals are on a rampage. S&P 500 is up 4 days in a row, the Nasdaq is up 6 days in a row, and gold has been up 12 of the past 13 days. Gold has never gone on such a run, so you can…
Private Sector Job Creation Disappoints
Housing Dips Slightly Investors are obsessed with the latest data because the economy is changing faster than ever. This is especially important with housing data because official data is so delayed. We just got data on June and we’re now in August. July data won’t come out for a few weeks. It makes MBA weekly…
Tech Bubble Reaches Even Greater Heights
Tech Rally Continues Nothing can stop tech stocks. According to a survey of investors, 70% think the big tech stocks will rally at least 5% in the next year. Only 13% see big tech falling. Only 3% seeing it fall 20% or more. In essence, no one sees a big decline coming. This is extreme…
Consumer Spending Is Stuck
Survey On Recovery Initially, in March and April people were calling for a depression. Price changes sentiment, though as people got more optimistic as the stock market recovered. It was very difficult to quantify what was going to happen because we didn’t know much about COVID-19 early this spring. After the initial recovery data was…
Speculation Like Never Before
Big Monday Rally In Tech This stock market is like a machine. The market started August and the week with a modest rally with tech outperforming. Rationally, you’d think this rally in tech can’t continue, but it keeps proving everyone who cares about valuations wrong. Specifically, the S&P 500 was up 0.72% as the big…
Congress Still Debating On Stimulus
Back To School It’s tough to overemphasize how important having kids go back to school is. Online college isn’t an issue. Some people believe going to college is about who you meet, meaning if you can’t go it’s not worth it. However, there are tons of people waiting to enroll at a prestigious university even…
FANG Dominates The Market: Can You Go Long Anything Else?
COVID-19 Update There is a seesaw-like relationship between the number of COVID-19 tests and the positive rate. If there is a huge spike in tests, cases will likely increase modestly and the positive rate will likely fall. If testing falls, cases fall and the positive rate rises. That’s what we saw on Friday. As you…