Apple and Tesla Are Bubble Stocks
No Rate Hikes For A Long Time In an analysis of the Fed’s decision to delay setting targets and not control the yield curve, it's notable that the Fed doesn’t need to convince people rates will be lower for longer. Fed has now convinced everyone that rates won’t be raised for the next few years. …
Stock Market’s Breadth Stinks - Nasdaq Bubble Almost Over
Most Stocks Selloff In a normal market, you would say Thursday was an extremely unusual day. However, this is the most bizarre market most have ever seen, so it’s consistent with the new normal. Logically, it makes sense stocks fell when the housing market was imploding and the banking system was shaky back in 2008. …
Jobless Claims - Bankruptcies Increase
Very Weak Jobless Claims The economy is in a race against time. Good news is the number of COVID-19 cases is falling rapidly and the labor market is improving. Bad news is federal unemployment benefits have gone away in most states. 11 states have started paying people $300 per week and 3 states are paying…
FAANG Stocks Look Vulnerable
Stocks Fall On Fed Minutes We’ve all watched stocks react to Fed announcements for years. In the last few months especially, we’ve seen the market fall initially after an announcement and then rally to a new high on the day. Most didn’t bet on it, but some were very confident the market would hit a…
Fed Disappoints Investors
Fed Minutes Spook The Market The Fed Minutes caused stocks to fall on Wednesday which is unusual because normally the market ignores the Minutes. Minutes are usually elongated policy discussions that get wonkish. They are a month old, so they don’t often bring anything new to the table. However, in this case they did because…
Stocks Limp To A New Record High
Horses Carry The Market To A Record High On Tuesday the stock market reached a record high in very unconvincing fashion. Large cap tech stocks drove it up, while most stocks actually fell. S&P 500 had 161 net decliners which means 161 more stocks fell than rose. The stock market has had 12 days this…
Is The Economy Weakening In Mid August?
Retail Sales Growth Improves Again The number one story in macro is the impact of the decline in unemployment benefits now that we know the benefits will go out slowly, many people won’t get them, and even the people who do get them are getting less money than they got in July. We already know…
Tesla Stock Reaches For The Clouds For No Apparent Reason
Tesla Is On A Rampage Monday was all about Tesla. There was an article on Tech Crunch that was titled “Tesla Shares Rally For No Reason.” This is a big deal because Tech Crunch isn’t a stock website. Tesla shares were up 11.2% on Monday for no reason like the article said. To be clear,…
Are Consumers Going To Be Ok This Fall?
Delinquencies Fall Sharply This was a unique recession because many who are poor and middle class actually made more money from unemployment insurance than they would normally earn from their jobs. As you can see from the chart below, 1.4% of American Express’ loans are 30 days past due. That’s down from 1.7% earlier this…
No Record High Again - Euphoria Remains
No Record High Friday A record high seemed to have been all but assured this week, yet it didn’t happen. Considering how much stocks rallied on Wednesday, there is obviously resistance at the February 19th high. It’s not a coincidence that the S&P 500 rallied sharply on Wednesday, but stopped right before the record and that…