Another Bad Jobless Claims Report
Another Bad Jobless Claims Report Jobless claims report in the week of June 20th was terrible which means there have been 2 bad reports in a row. Specifically, the prior report was revised up from 1.508 million to 1.54 million. As you can see from the chart below, this week’s report showed claims fell to 1.48…
June 8th Peak Was Significant
Big Wednesday Selloff The stock market sold off hard on Wednesday as there were the 2nd most new cases of COVID-19 ever; a few cities in the south and the west are near their breaking point in terms of hospital capacity. It’s looking more and more like the June 8th top will be very significant. Significant defined…
Will COVID-19 Stall The Recovery?
COVID-19 Situation Looks Grim COVID-19 seems to be getting worse in a few states in the west and the south. This isn’t a 2nd wave. It’s a continuation of the first wave. Deaths are unlikely to increase to the peak in early April because younger people are getting it and doctors have a better idea of…
Tech Bubble 2.0 Continues
Nasdaq 8 Day Winning Streak This is the Nasdaq’s world and we’re just living in it. The stock market overall isn’t extremely overbought. Some think it’s modestly too high. On the other hand, the Nasdaq is in a legitimate bubble. In other words, we can see the S&P 500 and the other major indexes falling…
Texas In Trouble Due To Covid-19?
COVID-19 Still Bad In Select States Many continue to believe COVID-19 is a risk factor for markets. Bulls like to say that the deaths are down and this isn’t a 2nd wave. They are correct, but they leave off the increase in hospitalizations and the increase in the percentage of tests that are positive. This latest…
Nasdaq Is Unstoppable
Strange Trade News On Fox News, Peter Navarro announced the trade deal with China was over. This sent the futures market into a tailspin. S&P 500 fell from 3,120 to 3,066. This was shocking. It came completely out of left field. We didn’t expect trade news on a Fox News talk show at 9PM. Almost…
Job Postings Are Down 29% Yearly - Why That’s A Good Thing
Job Postings Improve Further Even though last week’s jobless claims report was terrible, the Indeed data shows continued improvement. We will need to wait until next Thursday to see which is correct. The labor report is on Thursday because the 4th of July is causing a market holiday on the 3rd of July as the holiday is…
Tech Bubble 2.0 Featuring Shopify
Very Unusual Day The stock market had a relatively boring Friday until right before the close. Before getting into that, let’s explain why. Usually, we can only guess why stocks move strangely, but this time we know. It was quadruple witching day and the index funds rebalanced. This rebalancing was different than usual because the…
COVID-19 To Start Hurting The Stock Market
COVID-19 Is Still A Problem COVID-19 never really went away, but it’s about to be a problem again for the market. We saw the first negative market reaction in a couple months to anything COVID-19 related when Apple announced it was temporarily closing stores in Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, and South Carolina. We're not expecting…
Nasdaq 100 At An Extreme Level
High NAAIM Index & High Bears Thursday’s sentiment indexes were very confusing. NAAIM exposure index spiked again as fund managers bought the 7% correction. It’s no surprise people bought the dip because the market recovered. This index spiked from 77.48 which is a modestly high reading to 88.25 which is almost extreme. It’s slightly below…