Housing Market Is Oddly On Fire
Housing Is Strong The housing market is flat out strong. That’s weird to hear about a part of the economy because most of the economy is weak on an absolute basis, but improving on a rate of change basis. Housing market is strong and improving. That’s because the demand that usually occurs in March was simply…
Stock Market Correction Begins
Correction Is Beginning Fed gave the market its most dovish presentation possible, yet stocks still fell on Wednesday. That’s a powerful sign stocks are headed lower. This is the correction many have been predicting. Specifically, the S&P 500 fell 0.53% on Wednesday which now puts it 1.3% off its bear market high. Crashes of some…
Fed Not Even Thinking About Hiking Rates
Fed Doesn’t Change Rates In a surprise to no one, the Fed didn’t cut or hike rates. Most discussed quote by Powell was when he said, “We’re not thinking about raising rates. We’re not even thinking about thinking about raising rates. What we’re thinking about is providing support for the economy. We think this is…
Euphoria Remains Despite Slight Selloff
Irrelevant Tuesday Decline It’s as if stocks fell slightly on Tuesday to sprinkle in a down day every few days. We should hardly acknowledge that decline because this is one of the most euphoric markets most have ever seen. A 0.78% decline in the S&P 500 and a 0.29% gain in the Nasdaq does nothing…
Small Businesses Are Becoming More Optimistic
Terrible Redbook Reading We have differing data on the latest trend in consumer spending. Earlier this week, Mastercard released spending data in its 8K filing. This updated data is paramount because the economy has changed so much in the past few weeks. Switched volume growth in the week ending May 28th was -8% which was the…
Historic Reading In Put To Call Ratio
Most Overbought Ever This is the most overbought market we’ve ever seen. That includes the January 2018 VIX shorting mania. It's because stocks have run up faster and there is more risk. In the beginning of 2018, there wasn’t much risk other than prices being too high. Now, we are potentially exiting a global pandemic,…
Recession Is Official - And Might Be Over Already
Perfect Headlines This market has seen an unbelievable combination of headlines. We had bankrupt stocks skyrocketing which led to the headline that Chesapeake stock rose triple digits which was followed by the headline that it filed for bankruptcy. Similarly, the S&P 500 went positive on the year on the same day the NBER announced the…
Historic Euphoria In Stocks
Moment Is Here Recently, many have recognized the possibility that this would be a historic moment in markets in terms of euphoric speculation. Mostly that was because of the unprecedented new retail trading accounts. In early to mid-May we thought there were some buys. Then, several investors started becoming more bearish in late May and…
Big Unexpected Increase In Jobs Added In May
Craziest Labor Report Ever This was the craziest labor report we have ever seen or will ever see. It beat expectations dramatically just like the ADP report. The BLS report was even better than the ADP report potentially because of an error. Essentially, jobs started coming back in May instead of June. Workers were rehired…
Jobless Claims Imply Stocks Are Too High
Bad Jobless Claims Report Jobless claims report was terrible. That’s not what you want to see if you’re a bull because stocks have rallied so much on the premise a recovery is guaranteed. It’s far from guaranteed. Investors think that because the recession was man made (the shutdowns), it can be reversed easily. Technically, every…