When Every Indicator Fails, This One Still Works
You know all those price-based indicators everyone loves… Moving averages… RSI…MACD crossovers… Support and resistance... They’re all WORTHLESS right now. Only one actually matters, and here's why. The market isn't trading on price discovery anymore. It's trading on basket buying that props the index up, regardless of fundamentals. Money flows into S&P components automatically. Window…
Tuesday, November 11, 2025 - Tony's Pre-Market Playbook
Veterans Day Momentum Checkby Tony Rago Thank you to all who have served — we appreciate you. 🇺🇸 After a strong rally off Friday’s lows, markets are opening the week stretched and due for some retracement or consolidation. The bigger picture remains bullish on the higher time frames, but after that kind of move, it’s…
Monday, November 10, 2025 - TheoLIVE Market Masters
It’s a Monday morning miracle — the U.S. government’s allegedly reopening, the money printer’s humming, and the market’s acting like it just found religion. Everything liquidity-driven is ripping — silver, palladium, Bitcoin — and traders everywhere suddenly think they’re 1927 historians talking year-end rallies. Let’s keep it real and talk about what actually…
The January Price Shock Nobody's Pricing In
My neighbor runs several small businesses in Chicago. Good guy. Really good friend. We text all day long. Yesterday, he told me something terrifying. He's been talking to his friends who own small businesses: cleaning, plumbing, real estate… They're all saying the same thing: This is the last year they can keep prices contained. As…
Gold Flashes Warning Signals
Brandon just caught institutional money making a massive gold bet. And the timing tells you everything. Someone bought 114,000 call spreads in GLD targeting $405. That's the prior high. This trade happened right as Congress pushed through a continuing resolution to reopen the government. More government spending equals more dollar weakness. Gold surged 2.69% today…
The Market You Think You Know Died in the 1990s
Hey there, it’s Garrett. I spent this weekend at an Irish festival - feel fine, thanks - but came across research from Michael Howell that absolutely blew my mind. What you think you know about how markets work? That died around 1997, and nobody told you. The Numbers That Change Everything Back in the mid-1990s…
The Government Reopening Rally That Isn't
Don Kaufman here. And welcome to another episode of "The Media Gets Everything Wrong." This morning everyone's talking about the big rally on government reopening news. Futures were up 62 handles when I woke up. Every major channel is running the same story - markets celebrate as Senate passes deal to end shutdown. Here's the…
A Value-Oriented Rotation
Stocks are currently experiencing their longest pullback since July. Last week delivered a bruising session for the bulls. A late-day rally on Friday provided some relief, but without it, the damage would have been far more severe. The rotations I observed last week send a clear signal. Investors are showing a genuine appetite for value…
Monday, November 10, 2025 - Tony's Pre-Market Playbook
Gap Up to Start the Weekby Tony Rago Markets gapped up off the open and caught a clean rally from the weekly open — momentum carried over from Friday’s sharp reversal after rumors of a government shutdown resolution hit the wires. That kind of headline-driven move often stretches price quickly, leaving traders to sort…
When the Tape Tells You No
Three trades. Three minus three losses. Three consecutive paper cuts that added up to one clear message. "This tape just doesn't want me in it. It does not want me in it at all." Monday morning felt wrong from the start. The market wasn't moving with conviction. Price action looked choppy. The levels I normally…