Goldman: 100 Basis Points Equals One Trillion In Losses
On Friday, we got an abysmal NFP print. And that should have sent stocks soaring right out of the gate. As we explained here earlier today, bad economic news has traditionally been good news for equity investors and traders in the upside down environment that has largely characterized the post-crisis world. By the end of…
"So, Maybe July Then?”: Poor Jobs Report Puts Question Mark Over Fed
Bad news is good news. Or not. The market’s reaction to Friday’s NFP report betrays the extent to which investors and traders no longer have any idea how to read the Federal Reserve. There was a time when negative data was a guaranteed boon for risk. The worse the data, the better for stocks. Why?…
Sector Review ahead of News
TheoTraders review the major sectors of the markets before a big news announcement. Tomorrow unemployment numbers are out at 8:30 AM ET. No one knows how the market will react. This may be a situation where bad news is good news because the Fed will sit tight on rates for another 6 weeks. Tonight we…
Positioning For A Rate Hike: Let’s Look At Valuation, Sentiment, And Flows
I like talking to traders. I no longer classify myself as one, but there was a time when I was a card-carrying member of the club. Nowadays, I like to look at the macro picture and try to discern whether there’s something big on the horizon that will ultimately encompass all asset classes and thus…
A Cautionary Word About Trading And Policymakers On An OPEC, ECB Thursday
I want to talk a bit about perceived policymaker ineptitude today in the wake of the OPEC and ECB meetings, both held in Vienna. First, let’s do the headlines: we got nothing in the way of an agreement out of OPEC and no policy change from Draghi. To be sure, both of those outcomes (or…
Rolling Options
TheoTraders don't trade with hopium. TheoTraders will always give themselves the gift of time for a trade to work out. When a trade is on the dance floor with only a few days remaining until expiration a TheoTrader will never roll the dice. A TheoTrader will roll an option several weeks out at a credit…
“Yen”-sanity: Markets Swoon At The Open After Japanese Currency Soars
On Friday, I outlined how Japan’s FX Catch-22 could end up weighing on US equities. Make no mistake, it’s an important dynamic to understand. Generally speaking, risk moves opposite the yen and there’s also carry unwind when the JPY moves higher. One hot topic in Japan recently has been Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s plan to…
Trade idea off the third rail on the S&P
TheoTraders look for trades that give you an edge. TheoTraders also look for defined risk trades that are slow, steady, and consistent. Tonight let's look at a trade setup off the third rail on the S&P.
In Epochal Shift, Saudi Arabia Readies International Bond Sale
Something important happened today. The ubiquitous “people familiar with the matter” confirmed that Saudi Arabia is set to tap international capital markets for the first time in a bond sale worth as much as $15 billion. Although the Gulf’s budget crunch began making front page financial news (finally) late last year and has been a…
Fed Summer Survival Guide
Ok, so it’s Tuesday, which might as well be Monday thanks to the US and the UK being closed yesterday. I don’t mind penning “news-ish” market updates, but as regular readers here are probably aware, I prefer to outline my take on market themes or macro trends that I think matter from a big picture…