GDP Sinks & Fed Stays Dovish
Q1 GDP Growth Was Bad & Q2 Will Be Worse Q1 GDP report showed -4.8% growth which missed estimates for -3.7%. 2.25% of the decline actually came from healthcare because elective surgeries were delayed. This is the worst growth since the last recession as the chart below shows. The chart also includes Oxford Economics’ Q2…
A Market in Denial?
Lots of market activity today. The FOMC announcement was no surprise and had no impact on markets. Good news about an effective drug to treat covid-19 sent the market higher. Then after the close good earnings announcements from FB, MSFT, and TSLA sent markets even higher. The IWM ratio and QQQ vs IWM pairs trade…
Optimism About A Potential Reopening Of The Economy Can’t Be Contained
Stealth Rally In Stocks The stock market is forward looking. It has been rallying on the decline in new COVID-19 cases, stimulus, and the expected end to the shutdowns. This index has been helped in the past few weeks by the fact that the companies the least hurt/helped by this shutdown are huge components. We…
Any Guidance Is Good Guidance
Weak Earnings Guidance In a shock to no one on the planet, Q1 earnings season has been weak and guidance has been mostly non-existent. The situation is so unusually negative that when a company reports earnings and gives disappointing guidance, it’s a positive because at least there was guidance. We saw that play out with…
Key Earnings in Play Today and Tomorrow
Even if you're sitting this earnings season out - and that might not be a bad idea - key stocks reported today and others will report tomorrow. In tonight's video, Corey updates you on a key level in the SP500 along with snap-results from just-released earnings (mainly in Google and Starbucks) and how that can…
Huge Spike In Small & Micro Cap Stocks
Huge Rally In Small Caps Even though the stock market has rallied in the past few weeks, there hasn’t been pure optimism about COVID-19 getting better until Monday. That’s because the work from home stocks such as Amazon and Microsoft along with the bubble stocks like Zoom and Shopify have been leading the charge. These…
World Won’t Be Much Different After COVID-19
Low Income Workers Usually Get Hurt A non-consensus viewpoint is in this cycle the lowest paid workers will get hit less badly than they usually do in relation to the rest of the labor market. As you can see from the chart below, the bottom 50% of workers by net worth had the biggest decline…
Correlations are High, but Divergences are Higher!
A great lesson today on the right way to be short this market. Despite being delta negative (short) the market Don's P&L was flat today on a massively up day in the market. Plus discover one of the greatest opportunities in the market today. Find out more in today's video newsletter update…
There Could Be A Mild Retest
Nice Friday Rally (Week Still Down) This wasn’t as big of a rally as some of the ones we’ve seen in previous weeks, but it was very nice as it ended the week on a solid note. The stock market was down slightly this week as expected. Specifically, it rose 1.39% on Friday and fell…
Consumer Sentiment Stabilizes For Now
Consumer Sentiment Improved Slightly As expected, consumer sentiment improved slightly in the second half of April. That’s because it already fell so much in the first half of the month and because stocks rallied. Bad news is the initial spike in mid-April has worn down. That’s probably because stocks stopped increasing at a quick pace…