Ignore Negative Oil Prices (They’re Irrelevant)
Negative Oil? Sort Of The biggest story on Monday was the decline in the May oil futures contract which expired on Tuesday. Most people understood oil futures prices could go negative in an unlikely scenario because it costs money to receive the physical commodity. Oil is expensive and difficult to contain. That's why the shipping…
No One Is Giving Guidance (Uncertainty Rules)
March Activity Plummets We knew the March Chicago National Activity index would be bad. Most of the March economic reports are already out and they were terrible. However, even those low expectations weren’t met. We didn’t have a specific estimate for this report because such a guess is futile. However, it's still surprising how bad…
All is Not Well in the Markets
The financial markets are not well! Futures markets across the board are seeing very light volume. The front month oil futures contract went negative for the first time in history. With the world running out of storage for oil people were being paid to take the oil. The VIX is rising as traders see all…
Hope Dominates The Stock Market
Is This What Euphoria Feels Like? The stock market is expressing extreme hope that either the economy reopens in May or June without any trouble or that a treatment or vaccine are coming soon. At least there are a few ways for the bulls to win! We are probably not at a moment of extreme…
Jobless Claims Set To Fall Further (Great For Stocks)
Leading Indicators Crash March leading indicators report showed a 6.7% monthly decline which beat estimates for a 7% decline. If you can believe it, this was the best beat in 8 years. The title of this index being “leading indicators” is laughable now because we have known the 2nd half of the March economy was terrible…
The Bad News Rally?
The stock market continues to shake off bad economic news as the Fed continues to pump more money in expanding their balance sheet by over $300 billion this week alone. Is long term investing and fundamentals dead? Even the oracle of Omaha is quiet, but trading is alive and well. There's much to discuss on…
Stocks Spike On Thursday Evening On Hopes Of COVID-19 Treatment
Thursday Night Futures Spike Let’s start with the most important latest news. Futures market exploded to the upside. Stat News came out with a report that the early signs of the drug remdesivir seem to be positive. Obviously, if a drug that treats COVID-19 comes out, people can go back to their normal lives. The…
Initial Jobless Claims Fall Which Is Bullish For Stocks
Jobless Claims Fall As predicted, jobless claims fell sharply in the week of April 11th. Firstly, last week’s report showed claims were revised up from 6.06 million to 6.615 million which puts it just below its cycle high the week before. The addition of the 5.245 million claims in this latest report puts the unemployment…
Looking Beyond Stocks for the Market's Next Move
Is the rally over? That's what we're exploring in tonight's video as we look beyond the S&P 500 for clues and trades in Oil, Gold, and Bonds for bullish or bearish evidence to construct our next series of trades. We're carefully watching a key level in the stock market but there's more to keep our…
WTI Lowest Since February 2002
Stocks Are Now Down On The Week It has been very tough to predict near term price action, but for the first time in a while the week has gone exactly how expected. Many forecasted a week with a lot of up and down action in which the market ended modestly positive. So far, we…