Consumer Weakens Slightly: COVID-19 To Ruin Holiday Spending?
Vaccine Predicted To Stop COVID-19 We are all waiting to see if the economy rolls over or if it continues on its path towards improvement, albeit at a slower pace than earlier in the recovery. Most of the current data shows the economy still on solid footing in November, but things could go awry as…
Rotations, Risk, and Reality Lost
Volatility Compression—explosive moves, lower implied volatility Monsters of Tech— buying opportunity of the beginning of the end? IWM all-time highs— I’m long but risk/reward says get out now! XLF above 26.50 XLE— is energy on the road to recovery? CAT all-time highs-- buy the vol! SPX Expected Move--last week-- 91.54 (expected move)--next week-- 82.39
Option Rolling 101: Lower Risk and Increased Profitability
Option Rolling 101 After nearly 18 years that in the investment education industry, option rolling is one “trick of the trade” that few investors use. If rolling is discussed, it’s typically from a standpoint of weakness. That means that they’re looking to “fix” a losing trade and rolling by significantly increasing risk. What I’m about…
Stock Market Continues To Ignore COVID-19 - Nio Rises AGAIN
Small Decline On Thursday The stock market was experiencing euphoria on Wednesday. This pandemic that is ravaging the country has been ignored. That wouldn’t necessarily say the 1% decline in the S&P 500 on Thursday signaled the market is now taking it seriously. It’s easy for the headlines to claim that’s why stocks fell, but…
Lower Inflation and Better Labor Market
October CPI Mildly Disappoints CPI report had a lot of bang for its buck on Thursday. Yields were already headed lower because the long bond was oversold and because COVID-19 shutdowns are increasing. Adding a disappointing CPI piled onto the trade. October CPI showed less inflation which is the opposite of what the ISM and…
Earnings Plays and Risk Off Markets
Good evening! In tonight's Theo video update, Corey walks you through two leading earnings plays in Disney (DIS) and Cisco (CSCO). He updates the achieved expected moves and highlights what to do if you're not positioned Friday. Beyond that, we also pinpoint bearish money flow in stocks and bonds playing out off the highs right…
Stock Market Hits Euphoria
Less Than 1% From Record High The stock market is in an extremely euphoric state that doesn’t match the COVID-19 crisis which is set to be very deadly in December. There is high resistance at the current S&P 500 level combined with headlines of incoming shutdowns. Most don’t think there will be a 20% decline…
Jobs Postings Improve In Spite Of COVID-19 Looming
Job Postings Keep Improving In the week of November 6th, job postings were down 13% year over year as you can see from the chart below. Recovery hasn’t stopped despite COVID-19 hospitalizations passing the summer high. Interestingly, we’re starting to see news outlets call this the 2nd wave. If deaths materially get above the summer peak,…
SPY Option Bears Come Out of Hibernation
SPY Unusual Option Activity Report The market has had a good week and tested the upper end of this weeks expected move. The big move came following Pfizer’s vaccine news on Monday. Since that time, the price has stagnated and may look to retrace. Entering next week. As the price flounders near extremes, unusual option…
Pfizer Insiders Lining Up to Sell After Vaccine Announcement
Pfizer Inc (NYSE: PFE) Insider Report Pfizer made huge waves on Monday on the announcement that their vaccine was 90% effective among volunteers with no prior COVID infections. In the Northern Hemisphere where COVID cases have jumped significantly, that is a huge announcement. You would think that being the first to produce a workable vaccine…