Gold Is Taking the Shine Off the S&P 500
The S&P 500 just experienced a 2% rally after a risk-off day, with the VIX nearly hitting 25 before reversing. However, gold’s performance, with the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) up 1.4%, outshone most S&P sectors, signaling underlying market unease. Gold’s outperformance suggests a shift away from inflationary assets, as demand for physical gold rises amid…
Monday, March 31, 2025 - TheoLIVE Market Masters
Good morning from Sundance. The lighting’s wild, the scenery is beautiful, and the market? Well… the signal turned negative three days ago, and it’s been bleeding off ever since. We’ve got two major catalysts this week—and yeah, April 2nd may be my birthday, but more importantly, it’s Liberation Day (whatever that means, we’ll figure it…
TheoTrade’s Tale of the Tape: Bulls Have a Lot to Prove in Q2
It’s the last day of the first quarter, and it was a tough one for the U.S. market. Traders and investors alike were reminded that a financial world of opportunity exists beyond the United States’ borders. Fortunately, we were able to participate in that emerging move. But as we head into the second quarter and…
How a Rust-Belt Town Kid Found His Way to Wall Street
My parents moved to the United States from Italy a year before I was born. My father was in the cement business (surprise, surprise) and my mother worked as a secretary at Chrysler. I grew up in a small town in southeast Michigan littered with its fair share of skeleton factories. I realized at a…
Get Ready: Another Wave of Risk Is Imminent
Volatility is in backwardation… That’s not a horoscope or a fortune cookie, it’s real and it’s happening right now. We’re staring down the barrel of an intense, though possibly short, wave of volatility here. But this is a great market for trading. Earlier this week, while the markets were trading more or less flat,…
Friday, March 28, 2025 - TheoLIVE Market Masters
It’s Friday, March 28th, and you already know—I love Fridays. Why? Because we trade actively, we wrap the week, and yeah… I get to declare 162–0 in honor of opening day. A little baseball banter to kick things off, but make no mistake—there are serious warning signs in this market. We’ve got weak breadth, signs…
The Table is Set for Q2: Are You Ready?
The finish line is in sight for the first quarter, and it served as a humble reminder for many that volatility lurks around every corner in this market. Does that mean there weren’t any opportunities on the long-side of this market? Absolutely not. In fact, I think we have new themes that are really going…
Where the Business Cycle Says We Should Invest Right Now
In any Economics 101 classroom, they’ll tell you a standard business cycle in the US economy takes around four years to play out, from weakness to strength to weakness. Right now, although hard data and even anecdotal evidence (based on my quick TheoChat room survey yesterday) are mixed, with strength and growth in some places…
Thursday, March 27, 2025 - TheoLIVE Market Masters
Alright folks, it’s Thursday, and we’re slowing things down—well, sort of. My brain moves fast (think: drummer on double-time), but today we’re dialing it in with focus and precision. We’ve got a lot on tap, including a special guest appearance by Brandon Chapman—a guy who’s been nailing macro calls, including a huge one last week…
Risk Comes Raging Back - Here’s What to Do About It
The S&P 500 is down around 1.3% and volatility is up - nearly 9% for the day, in fact. THE CHOP is back, baby! Big-time. And we’re perfectly positioned for it, too. The sell-side activity we’ve seen today came from bigger fish out there, which is one reason why the Nasdaq isn’t doing anywhere near…