When Everyone Agrees, Everyone's Wrong
A poll came out last week that should terrify you. They surveyed the top 14 Wall Street strategists. Goldman. Morgan Stanley. Jefferies. Citi. Every single one predicted a stock market rally for 2026. Not one dissenting vote. Some called for 11% gains. Others predicted 17%. Two expected 21% returns. The average across all 14 was…
The 3-Day Window Wall Street Doesn't Want You to See
The market opened green this morning. Tech stocks ramping. Data centers flying. Nvidia up. Microsoft up. Meta climbing. I watched it happen from Chicago knowing exactly what was playing out. This is 401k money. Nothing more. Every January the same script runs. Retirement accounts fund. Passive money floods in. Fund managers shove capital into whatever…
The Big Short Just Blinked
Michael Burry closed his entire Tesla short position. The man who predicted the 2008 housing collapse and inspired a Hollywood film just walked away from his bet against Elon Musk. It was reported this morning that Burry exited completely. Most traders see this as bullish. Finally, the famous bear capitulated. Tesla wins again. I see…
The Sizzle Index Just Screamed
The sizzle index on Etsy hit 7.37 yesterday. Today it dropped back to 0.4. That one-day spike tells you everything. Someone knew something and positioned before the rest of the market caught on. I've tracked unusual options activity for decades. A reading that extreme doesn't happen randomly. The call side alone registered a six. That's…
The Trillion Dollar Exodus Nobody's Discussing
Active equity mutual funds just recorded their 11th consecutive year of outflows. This year alone, $1 trillion fled into passive index funds. That's not a typo. One trillion dollars abandoned stock pickers for autopilot investing. I've traded for 38 years. I've never seen concentration risk like this. The Genesis Cog Scanner tracks exactly when this…
The Lesson That Took Two Crashes to Learn
I was fully invested in 2001. You can tell what happened to me. The dot-com bubble burst, and I watched my portfolio evaporate. Then I tried to play that game again in 2007. We ran up, and I got fully invested again. We all know what happened there. Fool me twice, shame on me. I…
The Biggest Threat Until New Year’s Eve
This is a dangerous market. I told you five weeks ago there was zero chance of a selloff. Nothing has changed. Yet, I know many traders feel the need to “find” setups before 2026. That’s a great way to obliterate any gains you achieved in 2025. The market is frozen in a block of ice…
The $15 Billion Tax Dodge Nobody's Talking About
I'm short Las Vegas Sands at 67. Caesars is down. Wynn has been sliding all month. The entire casino sector is underperforming while the S&P grinds higher. Nobody's asking why. The answer isn't in the charts. It's in Washington. Lobbyists are pushing to regulate and slow down the proliferation of gambling across the United States.…
This Line Holds the Market Up
Pull up the four-hour MACD on the S&P 500. You can draw a straight line across it. That horizontal line tells you everything about this market. The algorithms have locked us in a range between 6,800 and 6,900. They will not let it die. I keep thinking about the 1990 horror film Flatliners. Medical…
The Only Cheap AI Stock Left
I can count the cheap technology stocks on one hand. Out of a thousand names, almost nothing qualifies as a buy right now. Valuations stretched beyond reason. Multiples that would make any fundamental analyst cringe. Then an analyst came out this weekend and said something I actually agree with. Adobe is cheap. I use Adobe…