Jamie Dimon Just Said What Nobody Wants to Hear
Hey trader, Jamie Dimon took JP Morgan from $20 a share to $300. He almost never sounds the alarm publicly. This week he stepped into the light. At JP Morgan's investor day on Monday, Dimon compared today's market to the years before the global financial crisis. His words were blunt. "The leverage is going up.…
How This One Metric Could Have Saved a $630 Million Fund
Hey trader, When I ran my hedge fund, there was one number my prime broker asked about before anything else. Not my returns, not my positions, my Value at Risk. Value at Risk tells you how much money you could lose on your worst day. It combines the probability of a market event with the…
The Canary in the $1.8 Trillion Coal Mine
Hey trader, You know that saying, “Never put all your eggs in one basket?” Private credit firm Blue Owl is learning why. Responsible for managing $1.6 billion in debt into private enterprises, they funded data centers, AI startups, you name it. They were exactly the kind of firm that thrived when money was cheap and…
The One Skill That Separates You From the Machines
Hey trader, Years ago, I used to surf near Manhattan Beach, California. Right off Rosecrans and Pacific Coast Highway sat a small office belonging to John Bollinger. I never met him. But the indicator he created became the most popular technical tool in retail trading history. At ThinkorSwim, Don Kaufman and I surveyed 10,000 clients…
The Stock I Called a Widow Maker Before It Collapsed
Hey trader, Brandon Chapman and Don Kaufman saw this one from a mile away. Carvana reported after the close on February 18th. The expected move was roughly $45. The stock hit a low of $271.03. That is nearly double the expected move, all to the downside. Brandon was leaning bearish ahead of the print. Members…
162 Fund Managers. Zero Bears. That Should Terrify You.
Hey trader, Take a look at the current Genesis COG scanner: Notice a pattern? The majority of signals are bearish, as they have been for weeks. Yet, no one seems to care what the algorithms are projecting. Take the Bank of America annual fund manager survey. They polled 162 managers, each with a minimum of…
The $60,000 Trap Door That Takes Down Everything
Hey trader, This past weekend, Bitcoin super traders put the word out. If Bitcoin breaks $60,000, it creates an automatic algorithmic trigger to liquidate all positions worldwide. The liquidation sweeps far beyond crypto. Gold, silver, precious metals, and the entire stock market all get dragged into the selling. I spoke with two of my trader…
The $60,000 Trap Door That Takes Down Everything
Hey trader, This past weekend, Bitcoin super traders put the word out. If Bitcoin breaks $60,000, it creates an automatic algorithmic trigger to liquidate all positions worldwide. The liquidation sweeps far beyond crypto. Gold, silver, precious metals, and the entire stock market all get dragged into the selling. I spoke with two of my trader…
When the Levee Breaks
Hey trader, I drive my kids to school in Chicago every morning. The route home takes me 15 minutes through the city because they changed the bridges. It used to take five. I have been making this drive for years. Something changed recently. There are fewer cars on the road and fewer Uber drivers in…
The Three Candles That Tell You Everything
Hey trader, I watched someone in my mentorship class stack 15 indicators on a single chart. He still could not tell me whether to buy or sell. That is the problem. You have been taught that more data means better decisions. So you add RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands, stochastics, and a dozen others. Your screen…