Second Highest ISM Services PMI Of 2020
Slightly Disappointing Wage Growth Within September’s employment report, hourly wages were up 0.1% from last month which missed estimates for 0.2% growth. Plus, August’s reading as revised down a tick. The exact same was true for yearly growth as hourly wages were up 4.7% instead of 4.8% and August’s reading went down from 4.7% to…
Stocks Still Laser Focused On Stimulus Possibilities
Another Factor Day The stock market has had many factor days this year. A factor day to me is when there is a large dispersion among returns in different factors. You know the drill. Large cap growth stocks have been inversely correlated at times with small cap value. You can see the daily performance spread…
Very Good September Job Creation - Government Makes Headline Look Worse
Very Strong September Jobs Report September jobs report was very strong. It actually beat expectations for private sector growth. Some economists are missing that the big decline in job creation came from the government which is temporary. They just show the headline change in jobs and then add in how bad the recession is. Of…
Biggest Face Ripping Rallies Since 2000
Small Caps Cheer On The Stimulus Russell 2000 was up 1.56% on the premise that a stimulus is coming. Small caps will sell off hard if nothing passes. In the past, when the market rises in anticipation of a catalyst, when that catalyst happens, stocks won’t rally further. That’s rational, but it’s not always how…
COVID-19 Destroyed Low Wage Jobs
Jobless Claims Fall It was a mistake to assume that in the 2 weeks California is pausing its initial claims transactions that their numbers would completely drop out of the total. That wasn’t what happened. They just kept California’s numbers the same, and included whatever initial claims CA had in the prior report in this…
Market Lives and Dies On Stimulus Talks
Market Hinges On Stimulus Hopes & Fears You never truly know why the market moves in certain directions each day, but Wednesday probably had the most certainty as to what the market was trading off of. The stock market crashed briefly in the afternoon as there were some negative reports on the possibility of a…
Better Than Expected ADP Jobs Report
Stimulus Controls The Market Speculation over the stimulus is controlling the market. For a brief moment, the futures market reacted to the presidential debate on Tuesday night, but then the algorithms switched over to following the stimulus negotiations. It’s fairly uncertain if anything will get done. But some lean towards thinking something will happen because…
Stocks Always Bottom On The Same Day?
Moderate Selloff On Tuesday Stocks fell modestly on Tuesday. At times in the trading session it seemed like the stay at home trade was beating the reopening trade. However, by the close everything was down. It was an across the board modest decline. S&P 500 fell 48 basis points, the Nasdaq fell 29 basis points,…
Stimulus Negotiations Set To Ramp Up
Fiscal Stimulus On The Docket On the day before the ADP report, we got another update on the consumer. By the way, the current estimate for September job growth in the Friday BLS report is 900,000. Investors moderately concerned this estimate is too high, but there will be over 600,000 jobs added. Moving on to…
Banks Snapback After Being Tarred and Feathered
Banks Are Very Hated Bank stocks received a lot of hate over the weekend because of their bad performance last week. Price determines sentiment. There hasn’t been anything more grueling than owning European or Japanese banks in the past 14 years. In the past 2 years, U.S. banks have also done poorly. As you can…