Small Businesses Can’t Pay Rent
Small Businesses Are In Big Trouble Apparently, the stock market is fine with a stimulus being delayed until 2021. And it doesn’t matter to the market as long as the uncertainty over whether it will pass is gone. It’s a coin flip where the market wins no matter which way the election lands. Goldman is…
Stocks Are On Fire
Yet Another Rally It appears that the stock market is now on a 3 day winning streak as it increased on Friday. And the stock market is on fire as it has risen 7.4% since September 23rd. Some people need to be reminded that the rally since the bottom on March 23rd isn’t normal. A 7.4%…
Slowdown Is Here - Stimulus Coming
Weakness In The Labor Market? Past jobless claims data was weak. When there is a weak report, it looks more like there hasn’t been much improvement in a couple months. If next week’s report is strong, it will look less like that, but there is no doubt in the past couple months the rate of…
Endless Rally On Stimulus Without Anything Passing
Another Small Cap Rally The stock market is getting close to being overbought again which is amazing because a few weeks ago the market was down 10%. It’s amazing how many days the market can rally on the potential for a stimulus. This reminds us of when the market would rally on trade talks without…
Uninspiring Jobless Claims Report
Not The Best Jobless Claims Report The jobless claims report from the week of October 3rd wasn’t that great probably because many businesses are on their last legs. Independent movie theaters are going bust now. COVID-19 situation is about to get a lot better. But that doesn’t help small businesses that have been hanging on for…
Windshield Wiper Stock Market Could End Soon
Rally Redo Wednesday was a redo of Tuesday’s rally except without the crash at the end of the day. A big difference was that this time tech stocks outperformed. They made up for their underperformance on the day before. This entire crash was based on President Trump tweets. It’s starting to not matter if a…
Fed Pleas For A Fiscal Stimulus
September Fed Minutes Fed’s Minutes from the September meeting were released on Wednesday. These Minutes stated, “Many participants noted that their economic outlook assumed additional fiscal support and that if future fiscal support was significantly smaller or arrived significantly later than they expected, the pace of the recovery could be slower than anticipated.” Fed strongly…
Stocks Crash As Stimulus Hopes Were Dashed Temporarily
Tuesday Rollercoaster The stock market exhibited high volatility on Tuesday afternoon. Let’s set the scene. Stock market was rallying nicely, with strong outperformance by the reopening stocks and banks. There was a burgeoning reflation trade as the TLT (long bond ETF) was falling. TLT almost closed below its 200 day moving average for the first…
25 Percent Decline In Christmas Shopping In Stores Expected
Update On The Consumer Redbook same store sales growth fell from 2.2% to 2.1% in the week of October 3rd. That’s better than the trough of this year and the decline in September, but it’s not an area we want growth to settle at. We want growth to stay in the mid single digits which…
Mega Rally In Small Caps, Banks and Oil
Massive Monday Rally Stocks absolutely exploded on Monday as President Trump was released from the hospital and tweeted in favor of a stimulus. Uncertainty over his health is over as many knew it would be. Odds of a stimulus passing in October probably increased. We won’t know if President Trump getting healthier helps him or…