Category: TheoDark Report

TheoDark Report

Labor Market Inches Towards Bottom of Financial Crisis

Weak November ADP Report Even if the 3rd COVID-19 wave didn’t happen, we’d be seeing some slowing. The economy can’t grow at a double digit pace and create 1 million jobs per month indefinitely. Obviously, we did have a 3rd wave which means there will be some impact this fall. We just don’t know how

TheoDark Report

How SKEW’d is the Market Post-Election?

Post-Election SKEW One of the indices that I follow closely is the Cboe SKEW Index (SKEW). For those that actively trade options, the concept of skew is probably not a foreign concept. However, most people aren’t aware that there’s an index that tracks the level of skew for the S P 500 Index options

TheoDark Report

Big Cyclical Election Day Rally

Huge Election Day Rally The stock market rallied hugely on Tuesday which might be given back on Wednesday depending on how the election goes. It seems like the market started to unwind some of the protection put in place a few weeks ago. That unwind doesn’t make sense now that we know the election w

TheoDark Report

Why Oil Prices Could Spike

Improved Sales Growth An ongoing thesis in the past month has been that the consumer is bumping along the bottom in terms of RedBook same store sales growth. The consumer isn’t taking a tumble to the negatives. But spending growth isn’t going to go back to the mid to high single digits which is norm

TheoDark Report

An Ode to Post-Election Day Volatility

Election Day Trading Opportunities In this morning’s chat with our own Don Kaufman, he outlined a trade to play a potential post-election move in the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA: XLF). As always, he doesn’t talk about it unless he’s willing to trade about it, which he did. In this pos

TheoDark Report

Monday Reversal: Tech Underperforms Like October

Strong Monday Reversal The stock market reversed course on Monday after having a terrible week. This was an oversold rally. We had a continuation of last Friday in that the tech stocks underperformed and small caps did well. A difference was energy rather than banks had a huge upswing. Investors are

TheoDark Report

Strong ISM PMI Shocks The Bears

September PCE Inflation Low Again Inflation isn’t a worry in yet another report. September PCE reading showed headline inflation rose from 1.3% to 1.4% which missed estimates for 1.5%. Core PCE inflation was up from 1.4% to 1.5% which missed estimates for 1.7%. While inflation wasn’t an issue in thi

TheoDark Report

Fisker, the Oldest New Kid on the EV Block

Fisker Inc (NYSE: FSR) Back in 2012, Tesla and Fisker were two fresh-faced EV car companies bursting onto the scene. However, just like the film Highlander, there could be only one. In the end Tesla went on to EV dominance and Fisker lasted about a year before filing for bankruptcy. The Federal Gove

TheoDark Report

Election Risk? Here’s How to Hedge It

Election 2020 Hedging Edition Many investors are nervous about the upcoming election. Do we know who wins on November 3rd or 4th? Heck, will we even know by the end of the month? Also, what will the market’s response be to the election results? There is definitely more questions than answers and eve

TheoDark Report

Major FAANG Tank

Tech Earnings COVID-19 Fears Tank Markets The stock market fell because of tech earnings and COVID-19 cases spiking on Friday. With all the FAANG stocks cratering except Alphabet, we all wonder if there was some profit taking and some fear of rising rates. Oddly, even though stock investors fear a s